From ABC7 New York · · 1m 30s
Super-sized El Niño heat deaths forecast
New study warns 451,000 heat deaths possible by February from super-sized El Niño.
In brief
New study warns 451,000 heat deaths possible by February from super-sized El Niño. A Climate Impact Lab study projects 451,000 heat deaths globally by February 2027 due to super-sized El Niño, with Nigeria facing 31,400 fatalities. Originally reported by ABC7 New York.
Super-sized El Niño heat deaths forecast
A Climate Impact Lab study projects 451,000 heat deaths globally by February 2027 due to super-sized El Niño.
El Niño's record strength
El Niño, a natural climate pattern which typically ramps up global temperature, has now crossed into super-sized territory and is on its way to becoming record-breakingly strong.
Heat deaths impact
The report estimates the heat from El Niño could take 451,000 lives between June 2026 and February 2027, in addition to usual heat-related deaths.
Global South at highest risk
Nigeria faces 31,400 projected heat deaths, with Indonesia, Sudan, India, Brazil and the United States also among the top 20 affected countries.
Climate change connection
Scientists project El Niño will push global land temperatures up 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal, matching climate change projections for 20 years from now.
Report author perspective
Michael Greenstone, a report author, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the 451,000 death estimate is made up of parents, children, grandparents, neighbors, and people going to work.
Policymakers urged to act
The Climate Impact Lab released the shorter report first due to El Niño's rapid strengthening, urging immediate action to prevent heat deaths before peer review completes.
What it means
A Climate Impact Lab study projects 451,000 heat deaths globally by February 2027 due to super-sized El Niño, with Nigeria facing 31,400 fatalities.
