Houthis cross the line

Iran-backed Houthis have attacked Saudi Arabia's civilian infrastructure including airports, killing at least a dozen people and injuring hundreds. The escalation has destroyed previous limits on conflict.

Why the Houthis are escalating

The Houthis are pursuing Iran's agenda to heighten tensions before the United States midterms, despite knowing fierce retaliation will follow. This is a reckless gamble not in their interest.

Scenario one: united front

Saudi Arabia is building a regional coalition including Gulf states, Pakistan and Turkey, who signed the Mecca Pact. The pact is to be ratified by the Turkish parliament in the next few days.

Coalition could retake territory

A united front could support the Yemeni government's counteroffensive to retake the western coastal region including areas beyond Bab al-Mandeb and Dhubab, easing Red Sea shipping pressure.

Sanaa remains the prize

Retaking Sanaa is possible but blocked by internal discord among government factions and external interference. Recent efforts to unify decision-making have yielded noticeable progress on the ground.

Scenario two: war of attrition

If the coalition fractures, the Houthis will hold their positions, increase pressure on Taiz and maintain attacks on Saudi Arabia. This prolongs the war without a decisive outcome.

Stalemate benefits Iran

A war of attrition creates a no victor, no vanquished deadlock in Yemen, but Iran emerges as winner. Tehran gains breathing room and leverage in international negotiations with the Houthi card.

“no victor, no vanquished”

Only path forward

Resolving the Yemen crisis requires decisive military action led by the Yemeni government and supported by a region-wide coalition. The government must first resolve its internal affairs and ally relations.