Experts predicted AI would crush new grad jobs

Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that 2026 graduates could face the highest unemployment in years as AI finally became capable of replacing entry-level work.

“AI literally until December was not actually good enough to do any of the jobs that they're actually cutting.”

Researchers studied recent grad unemployment

CESifo economists Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu analyzed Census data on college graduates aged 22 to 25 from 2022 to 2026, looking for signs that AI adoption had reduced hiring.

Summer 2026 unemployment looks completely normal

The unemployment rate for recent college graduates in summer 2026 was 7.3 percent, well within the historical range of 6.3 to 7.8 percent seen in previous years.

No statistically significant AI impact found

When researchers compared recent graduates to non-college graduates and older workers, and broke down employment by AI exposure levels, they found no meaningful differences in unemployment trends.

“unemployment among recent college graduates in summer 2026 was not unusually high relative to earlier summers”

Stanford study showed opposite results

An earlier Stanford study using ADP payroll data found entry-level employment lagging in AI-impacted fields, but it measured job supply rather than unemployment demand.

Future classes may face different conditions

Researchers caution that 2026 data is just a first test. If AI adoption accelerates further, the graduating classes of 2027 and beyond could experience different employment outcomes.

“if the intensity of AI use in the workplace continues to increase, the graduating classes of 2027 and later might be more affected”