Global carbon emissions dip, but the trend points up

Emissions fall, but not for the right reasons

A new analysis led by Corinne Le Quéré at the University of East Anglia estimates that fossil fuel emissions have fallen about 0.4 percent from last year.

“This probably isn't a peak that symbolizes heartening progress on climate change”

Last year emissions rose faster than average

Last year, fossil fuel emissions increased 1.2 percent, a bit above the 2019 to 2025 average of 0.8 percent per year.This year's decline featured a 1.9 percent drop in oil emissions, a smaller 0.

Clean energy offset most of the growth

Demand did increase, but additions of electric vehicles and solar and wind generation covered almost 70 percent of the growth.

Fifty-nine countries cut emissions while growing

Between 2019 and 2025, 59 countries cut their emissions despite economic growth, even as global emissions increased by 0.8 percent per year.

Projections show emissions will rise again

Given the International Monetary Fund's projection for GDP through 2028, researchers extrapolated these trends forward. Without the shock to oil prices, global fossil fuel emissions would be increasing in 2026 as well.

Peak emissions may be close but not yet here

The growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy is offsetting most of the growth of emissions, but not all of it.

“If further acceleration of clean technology deployment can be supported through time, a sustained peak and decline in global CO 2 emissions could be a few years away.”