The peak came and went

September 10 is normally the busiest moment of the Atlantic hurricane season. Last week it passed with not even a tropical wave on the map.

“with nary a tropical wave in sight, let alone a storm or hurricane”

Dust and shear shut the door

Sea surface temperatures are at their warmest right now, but the main development region is choked with Saharan dust and hostile wind shear.

Nobody is complaining

Landfalling hurricanes wreck coastlines and dump rain far inland. Even a storm sitting in the Gulf can send energy prices climbing.

Nothing like it since 1851

Since aircraft monitoring began in 1944, a hurricane had formed by September 11 every single year. Go back to 1851 and every year still logged at least one.

“Dating back to 1944, a hurricane had formed every year by September 11.”

The record about to fall

The latest first hurricane on record was September 17, 1941. The Hurricane Center's one disturbance has a near zero chance of even becoming a depression.

“I'm here to tell you that the Atlantic will not produce a hurricane by the end of Thursday.”

Dead last out of 77

Accumulated cyclone energy ranks this year 77th of 77 since 1950, at 7 percent of normal, built by five weak tropical storms. October could still change that.

El Niño sends the bill

A Pacific anomaly near 3°C above baseline, the strongest for this time of year in the modern record, is doing this. It also threatens the Panama Canal, Asian rice, and makes 2027 almost certainly the hottest year ever.

“Almost assuredly, 2027 will be the planet's hottest year on record”