From BBC Sport · · 2m
Early Premier League table lies. Here's the real story.
Expected goals reveal which teams are genuinely dominant and which are just getting lucky in the first five games.
In brief
Expected goals reveal which teams are genuinely dominant and which are just getting lucky in the first five games. Early season league position is misleading. Expected goals (xG) shows how teams actually performed, predicting long-term success better than wins alone. Originally reported by BBC Sport.
Early table is basically meaningless
Last season Liverpool were top after five games but finished fifth. Tottenham were third and ended 17th. The early standings don't predict how teams will actually finish.
What expected goals actually measures
Expected goals (xG) shows how much teams dominated games based on shot quality and quantity, before luck and finishing skill matter. History shows teams that dominate games win more points long-term.
Arsenal dominate despite Brighton loss
Champions Arsenal suffered their worst defeat in three years at Brighton but still have the best xG difference overall. They've dominated games more than any other team so far.
Manchester United better than they look
Despite an underwhelming start, Manchester United rank third in xG difference. They've actually performed well but haven't converted chances into wins yet.
Newcastle scoring way too much
Newcastle have scored 9 goals from just 4.5 expected goals, nearly double what they should have. This clinical finishing won't last, so they need to create more chances.
Brighton's attack is elite
Brighton have the highest xG in the league and scored 15 non-penalty goals from 10.7 expected goals. They're both creating chances and finishing ruthlessly.
Arsenal's defence still best in league
Arsenal have by far the best defensive xG in the league, even after losing heavily to Brighton. Their backline remains the strongest foundation in the Premier League.
Palace and Chelsea too open at back
Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have been far too open defensively this season. They're conceding chances they shouldn't, and this pattern usually doesn't improve without changes.
Promoted teams look genuinely solid
Hull and Ipswich, the newly promoted teams, have made solid starts based on their underlying numbers. They won't go down without a fight this season.
The headline
Early season league position is misleading. Expected goals (xG) shows how teams actually performed, predicting long-term success better than wins alone.
