From BBC Weather · · 2m
Record-breaking El Niño peaks weeks early
The strongest El Niño on record is already exceeding previous temperature marks, with global weather impacts unfolding ahead of schedule.
In brief
The strongest El Niño on record is already exceeding previous temperature marks, with global weather impacts unfolding ahead of schedule. El Niño has already broken sea surface temperature records with weeks to go before its expected peak, bringing extreme weather to multiple regions simultaneously. Originally…
Strongest El Niño on record
Daily sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific hit 3.05C above average on 19 September, breaking the 2015 record of 3.02C. The peak hasn't arrived yet.
“The fact that it has already exceeded previous records, with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year, shows the enormity of this El Niño.”
What is El Niño exactly
El Niño happens every two to seven years when trade winds weaken, allowing warm Pacific water to spread eastward. Heat released into the atmosphere boosts global temperatures and shifts weather patterns worldwide.
Two ways to measure strength
The Oceanic Niño Index tracks daily sea surface temperatures against historical averages. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index compares the El Niño region to other tropical oceans, accounting for climate change background warming.
India's monsoon already weakening
Southwest monsoon rainfall in India through 22 September was 15 percent below normal, reflecting a typical El Niño impact. This pattern is expected to continue.
Atlantic hurricane season stalled
No Atlantic hurricanes have formed in 2026 as of late September, setting a new record for the latest date without a hurricane since satellite monitoring began. El Niño wind patterns suppress Atlantic storm activity.
Wildfires and droughts spreading
Indonesia, Brazil, and Australia face enhanced drought and wildfire threats. Around 12.5 million people in Indonesia are already affected by El Niño-fuelled wildfires, according to the health ministry.
UK faces stormy autumn ahead
The Met Office forecasts increased rainfall and storminess across north-west Europe in late autumn and early winter, particularly November and December. The 2015-2016 El Niño winter brought record flooding.
Cold spells possible but uncertain
El Niño can bring UK cold spells in late winter, though the link is weak and evidence is mixed. The 2009-2010 Big Freeze coincided with El Niño, but 2006-2007 was unseasonably warm.
Strength doesn't guarantee impact
Every El Niño differs, so impacts on global weather are not guaranteed. The unprecedented strength of this event does not necessarily mean unprecedented weather impacts, though scientists are still assessing the relationship.
The bottom line
El Niño has already broken sea surface temperature records with weeks to go before its expected peak, bringing extreme weather to multiple regions simultaneously.
