From Buenos Aires Herald · Juan Marcos Pollio · · 50s
Morgan Stanley Predicts 50% Bearish Election Outcome Odds
Morgan Stanley reports 50% chance of Argentina's 2027 election outcome worsening financial stability.
In brief
Morgan Stanley reports 50% chance of Argentina's 2027 election outcome worsening financial stability. Morgan Stanley says Argentine bonds now price a 50% probability of a bearish outcome after 2027 elections. Originally reported by Buenos Aires Herald.
Election Impact on Bonds
Argentine government bonds increasingly price a change in political direction after 2027 elections.
Morgan Stanley Report
Morgan Stanley reports Argentine bonds price a 41-52% probability of bearish outcome after 2027 elections.
Three Scenarios
Morgan Stanley assigns two-thirds of adverse scenarios to 'Muddle Through' and one-third to default.
Bond Maturity Timeline
US$3.8 billion in government bonds mature on January 9, 2028, one month after new president takes office.
Country Risk Rise
Argentina's country risk premium rose to 900 basis points, its highest level in a year.
The one thing
Morgan Stanley says Argentine bonds now price a 50% probability of a bearish outcome after 2027 elections.
