From Buenos Aires Herald · Nazarena Lomagno · · 2m
Trump’s loss raises questions for Milei
Will U.S. Treasury bail out Argentina again as Milei faces economic turmoil?
In brief
Will U.S. Treasury bail out Argentina again as Milei faces economic turmoil? Argentina’s country risk index hit 852 points, raising doubts about U.S. Treasury support for Milei’s 2027 election amid economic uncertainty. Originally reported by Buenos Aires Herald.
Trump’s 2026 loss sparks Argentina debt concerns
U.S. President Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2026 midterms raised questions about Argentina’s 2027 presidential election funding.
Country risk index hits 852 points
The country risk index surpassed 850 points, reaching its highest level since last year’s legislative elections and more than double the low of 402 points it had hit on July 10.
Debt issuance appears impossible
Economists and banking sources say issuing debt on the international market at a reasonable rate appears out of the question.
Analysts disagree on 2027 outlook
Analysts’ projections regarding the global outlook for emerging markets in 2027 also differ.
Market closed for Argentina
The debate over Washington’s potential role is gaining traction because the alternative of returning to the international market is not currently available.
Analyst Buteler on debt timing
Analyst Cristian Buteler said the government should have issued debt earlier due to a stagnant economy and expected Trump tariff pressure.
Neffa on rollover needs
Research for Traders head Gustavo Neffa stated Argentina needs a sustained rollover, just as all other countries in the region do.
U.S. Treasury support under scrutiny
The U.S. Treasury’s ability to help Argentina is in doubt due to political changes in Congress.
Scott Bessent’s future uncertain
Analysts question whether Scott Bessent, architect of the 2025 bailout, will stay in his role after the election.
2027 debt needs estimate
A report by the Center for Argentine Political Economy estimates the Treasury could need to purchase US$12.5 billion from the Central Bank next year.
Local analysts warn of high costs
Bank analysts say issuing debt now would be too expensive, with rates likely exceeding 9 percent.
Political factors drive country risk
Economist Ignacio Abuchdid said a country risk rating above 800 points is 'utter nonsense' due to political circumstances.
U.S. financing tools under review
The American Chamber of Commerce CEO said the U.S. could allocate up to US$20 billion to Argentina through the Development Finance Corporation.
Congress may block support
Democrats could push for investigations into the 2025 operation through Treasury committees after their new majority.
The takeaway
Argentina’s country risk index hit 852 points, raising doubts about U.S. Treasury support for Milei’s 2027 election amid economic uncertainty.
