From Buenos Aires Times · Jorge Fontevecchia · · 2m
Ana Iparraguirre: Trump Will Get More Radical If He Loses Next Elections
Political scientist Ana Iparraguirre warns Trump could become more radical if Republicans lose US Congress.
In brief
Political scientist Ana Iparraguirre warns Trump could become more radical if Republicans lose US Congress. Political scientist Ana Iparraguirre says Trump may become more radical if Republicans lose US Congress. Originally reported by Buenos Aires Times.
Brazil Run-off Analysis
Political scientist Ana Iparraguirre analyzed Brazil's run-off election where voters rejected both Lula and Bolsonaro.
“In the first round the question was 'Do we want Lula or not? And the people said 'No.' In the second round the question has changed to 'Do we want Bolsonaro or not? And the people are saying no.'”
US Midterms Forecast
Iparraguirre predicts Democrats could win both US House and Senate but Trump may become more radical if Republicans lose Congress.
“In the United States we are going to have a very interesting election where the tide is in favour of the Democratic Party”
Trump's Radical Shift
Trump might become more radical if Republicans lose Congress as he has no loyalty to the party and could act unpredictably.
“Well, perhaps he will be much more intense like a company heading into bankruptcy tends in those last stages to make random attempts to perform magic to see if they can manage to save it somehow”
Jd Vance vs Marco Rubio
Jd Vance has strong fundraising skills and may win primary over Marco Rubio in Republican succession battle.
“JD Vance has one huge advantage, for example, that he is a great fundraiser”
Argentina's Political Context
Argentina's political landscape shows dissatisfaction with government performance and economic results from current leadership.
“What has the state done in the last three years to sort out or improve the lives of you and your family?”
Latin American Conservative Wave
Latin America's conservative wave depends on producing concrete economic results to maintain support.
“The permanence of the current conservative wave in Latin America will depend on its capacity to produce concrete economic results”
Trump's Potential Radicalization
Trump could become more radicalized if Republicans lose Congress as he has no party loyalty and may act unpredictably.
“Well, perhaps we can see a Trump who is not more moderate on the basis of this result but more radicalised”
Javier Milei's Challenge
Javier Milei's government faces reduced US political support if Trump becomes more radicalized.
“And there is where it seems to be where [Javier] Milei will see himself most affected because he will not have the support of half the US political system but perhaps a quarter”
Conservative Party Division
Republican Party splits between globalists and isolationists with Vance favoring global trade and Rubio pushing for isolationism.
“Those closer to [Vice-President] JD Vance wants something different for the United States, more isolationist”
Pink Tide Analysis
The 'pink tide' wave of left-wing governments has declined but shows potential for lasting change through economic results.
“The 'pink tide' lasted a while, indisputably, and this wave is now in the opposite direction”
Economic Challenges
Latin America faces economic challenges with income inequality and lack of effective tax policies for the wealthy.
“This is not a problem of left or right: the problem is the impossibility of taxing the one percent richest”
Future Political Shifts
Political systems may change due to AI, global conflicts, and aging populations requiring new governance approaches.
“Artificial intelligence is changing our production; the number of global conflicts is at historically record levels”
Conservative Wave Sustainability
Latin America's conservative wave will last only if it produces concrete economic results for citizens.
“The right has still not managed to produce results to pass from rejection of what has gone before to being convinced by and defending the ideas of the new right”
Next Steps for Trump
Trump's radicalization could lead to more extreme policies if Republicans lose Congress in midterms.
“The primary for the succession to Trump will begin from mid-2027 and the end of next year”
What matters most
Political scientist Ana Iparraguirre says Trump may become more radical if Republicans lose US Congress.
