Israelis vote Tuesday in tight race

After three years at war on multiple fronts, Israelis go to the polls Tuesday in a hotly contested election. Polls show an incredibly tight race with no guarantee of a quick outcome.

Polls show conflicting predictions

Right-leaning pollsters give an advantage to Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc, while left-leaning pollsters show an advantage for the change bloc opposing the incumbent.

Neither side likely to win decisively

Most polls show neither side will win a decisive majority of the one hundred twenty seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. This could lead to protracted negotiations or even another election.

Indecisive outcome most likely

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, said an indecisive outcome is the most likely outcome of Tuesday's election.

“It looks like an indecisive outcome is the most likely outcome.”

First election since October seventh

This is the first election since the October seventh, twenty twenty-three attacks by Hamas, which authorities acknowledged as Israel's most catastrophic security failure since the country's founding in nineteen forty-eight.

Netanyahu seeks another coalition

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest serving prime minister and leader of the Likud party, seeks to form another coalition with ultranationalist and Jewish religious parties.

Netanyahu's two main arguments

Netanyahu argues only he can form a government without Arab parties, which he says would endanger the country. He also says Israel's campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran are ongoing and need more time.

Trump endorses Netanyahu strongly

President Trump offered a full-throated endorsement of Netanyahu last week, reiterating firm support for the war against Iran launched jointly almost eight months ago.

“If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.”

Gadi Eisenkot leads the opposition

Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the centrist Yashar party, is the front-runner to lead the change bloc if it wins enough seats to build a coalition.

Eisenkot frames himself as uniter

Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews serving in Gaza. He frames himself as a humble veteran who wants to reunite Israel after years of division he blames on Netanyahu.

Arab turnout could decide the race

Arab Israelis make up around twenty percent of Israel's population. Higher Arab turnout makes it less likely Netanyahu can form another government within his current coalition.

Ultra-Orthodox draft divides coalitions

Two new parties entering this election are focused on challenging Netanyahu's alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties by demanding ultra-Orthodox Jewish citizens be formally included in mandatory military service.

Stalemate could trigger new elections

If neither bloc wins a clear majority, parties could break promises and switch sides, form a minority government, or trigger new elections.Between twenty nineteen and twenty twenty-two, Israel held five elections due to electoral deadlock.