From CBS News · Anthony Salvanto · · 2m
Trump isn't on the ballot, but the midterms are about him
A new CBS News poll finds Trump looming over 2026 for both parties, with Democrats projected at 228 House seats and prices driving the vote.
In brief
A new CBS News poll finds Trump looming over 2026 for both parties, with Democrats projected at 228 House seats and prices driving the vote. Democrats lead on seats because voters are angry about prices and want to check Trump, not because they trust Democrats to fix their finances. Originally reported by CBS News.
Both sides see one man
Republicans and Democrats agree the 2026 midterms are about Trump, for opposite reasons. If the intensity holds to Election Day, it would beat his own 2018 mark for a president looming over a midterm.
“They both see the midterms as being about President Trump, albeit for different reasons.”
Prices are the engine
Inflation is pushing voters against the party in power, the same way it did two years ago. Most don't think either party can actually fix their finances, so the vote is opposition, not hope.
“It's more just out of opposition.”
Tariffs and Iran land badly
Most voters prefer a candidate who opposes new tariffs and opposes the conflict with Iran, which they tie to higher prices at home.
228 seats, with wide error bars
The CBS House model puts Democrats at 228, past the 218 needed. The range runs into the high 230s if things break their way, but dips to 215, which keeps a narrow GOP hold in play.
“Republicans do have a bid to hold on to their current, narrow House majority from here.”
MAGA is holding the line
Most 2024 Trump voters are staying Republican even while feeling the squeeze on prices, largely because they view Democrats unfavorably and see a Democratic Congress as a threat to their way of life.
“They see a Democratic-controlled Congress as a threat to their culture and way of life.”
Enthusiasm splits oddly
More Democrats call themselves very enthusiastic about voting. MAGA Republicans say they're as interested as in 2024, but non-MAGA Republicans are less likely to say they'll definitely vote.
An anti-Trump vote, not a pro-Democrat one
More of the Democratic coalition is motivated by stopping Trump's policies than by advancing their own. The democratic socialist label doesn't sell past the base, and even inside it the reaction is mixed.
Watch Hispanic voters and AI
Democrats have grown with Hispanic voters since 2024, most of whom oppose the administration's ICE approach. Both parties expect AI to cut jobs, and voters lean against new data centers nearby.
The short version
Democrats lead on seats because voters are angry about prices and want to check Trump, not because they trust Democrats to fix their finances.
