Kawhi signs long-term Raptors deal

Leonard agreed to a two-year, $115 million extension through 2028-29, with the final year as a player option. He'll play out his current $50 million contract this season before the new deal begins in 2027.

Raptors suddenly look like contenders

Toronto won 46 games last season with a top-five defense that forced 22 turnovers per game, fueling a transition attack that scored 28.6 points per game. Adding Leonard, a sharper isolation and pick-and-roll weapon than Scottie Barnes, gives them the half-court scoring punch every contender needs.

The Ingram trade made sense

Brandon Ingram averaged 21.5 points and made the All-Star team, but Toronto was nine points worse per 100 possessions when he was on the floor. His methodical style clashed with the team's fast-paced identity, and he was exposed in the playoffs.

Concern one: Can Leonard stay healthy?

Last season with the Clippers, Leonard had his healthiest regular season, playing 65 games at near 50-40-90 shooting. But he tore his ACL in the playoffs after 68 games, and has played under 60% of regular-season games with LA overall.

“If he's on the floor, he remains one of the best players in the league. But that is always going to be a gigantic if.”

Concern two: Barnes and Leonard overlap

Both players attempt eight shots per game from 15-19 feet, with 31-32% of their shot diet coming from the short midrange. Leonard takes more threes and makes them at a higher clip, but there's potential for scoring zone overcrowding.

Leonard can increase three-point volume

Leonard took a career-high 6.8 threes per game last season. The Raptors finished bottom-five in three-point attempts and makes, so more volume from Leonard would help spread the floor and reduce midrange congestion.

Concern three: Where does RJ Barrett fit?

Barrett was a consistent 20-point scorer with a career-high 58.5 true-shooting percentage last season. But he also hunts shots from the same scoring zones as Barnes and Leonard, and shoots just 34-35% from three over the last two years.

Barrett's three-point shooting is inconsistent

Barrett shoots 34-35% from three overall but connects at 38% on wide-open looks and 42% on unguarded threes. His catch-and-shoot efficiency hovers around league average, creating uncertainty about his spacing value.

Barrett's contract situation looms

Barrett is in the final year of his deal at $29.6 million and will want similar money next summer. Toronto already has $330 million committed to Leonard, Barnes, Poeltl, and Quickley through 2029, making a Barrett extension unlikely.

Raptors need three scorers to compete

Last season, Toronto had three players average over 18 points (Ingram, Barrett, Barnes). Leonard should exceed Ingram's 21.5 points, Barnes should reach 20, but the team ranked bottom-10 in scoring and needs more offensive firepower overall.

A few months will tell the story

The Raptors will likely give Leonard, Barnes, and Barrett time to develop chemistry before the February trade deadline. If Barrett struggles to adapt, Toronto may move him rather than lose him for nothing next summer.