Data centers could flip Texas blue in 2026

Opposition to AI data centers is splitting Republicans and giving Democrats their best shot at winning Texas statewide since 1994.

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Sep 23, 2026

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Data centers could flip Texas blue in 2026

Opposition to AI data centers is splitting Republicans and giving Democrats their best shot at winning Texas statewide since 1994.

In brief

Opposition to AI data centers is splitting Republicans and giving Democrats their best shot at winning Texas statewide since 1994. Data center backlash is reshaping Texas politics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with 57% of voters opposing facilities in their communities and Democrats positioning themselves as…

Survey markers spark a crusade

Mason McCallister, a real estate agent near Bells, Texas, spotted survey markers on a gravel road in December and realized a data center was coming to his rural community between Dallas and Oklahoma.

McCallister's home and concerns

McCallister and his wife Heather built their house on twenty-six acres where they keep three horses and a donkey. His primary concerns are water and power usage from the proposed facility.

Backlash spreads across Texas

Backlash spreads across Texas

As more data center projects are proposed and built, people have flooded local meetings to protest, citing concerns about water and resource use, noise and light pollution, rising utility costs and falling property values.

Voters strongly oppose data centers

A Texas Politics Project poll conducted in August found fifty-seven percent of Texas voters opposed a data center in their community, including forty-three percent of Republicans, fifty-four percent of independents and sixty percent of rural voters.

Democrats see a path to power

Political strategists say data center opposition is potent enough to shift the balance of power in Texas, potentially paving the way for Democrats to win statewide for the first time since nineteen ninety-four.

Trump backs data centers strongly

Trump backs data centers strongly

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on August thirty-first: "The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor."

“The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor.”

Republicans caught in a bind

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton face a dilemma: defy Trump and their tech-industry donors, or anger a sizable bloc of data center opponents within their own base.

GOP strategist warns of backlash

Brendan Steinhauser, a GOP strategist and CEO of The Alliance for Secure AI Action, said: "This issue is politically toxic, and if Republicans have a message that says let Big Tech run wild, Republicans are going to pay a price at the ballot box."

“This issue is politically toxic, and if Republicans have a message that says let Big Tech run wild, Republicans are going to pay a price at the ballot box.”

Abbott shifts his position

Abbott shifts his position

Abbott, who in two thousand fifteen signed legislation creating sales tax exemptions for data centers, unveiled a plan in August instructing state regulators to audit all proposed data centers before allowing projects to proceed.

Abbott halts data center permits

Abbott ordered the state's environmental regulator to halt all data center-related permits while an audit of the existing waitlist is completed, and suggested the state legislature repeal the data center tax break.

Paxton introduces a plan

Ken Paxton introduced a "Texas first" data center plan in late August calling for legislation to bar Chinese technology from powering U.S. data centers and hold AI companies criminally liable if their chatbots harm children.

Campaign cash from data interests

Abbott has received millions from AI and data center interests, including five hundred thousand dollar donations from xAI founder Elon Musk and Black Mountain CEO Rhett Bennett. Paxton's campaign received more than four hundred thousand dollars from data center-tied individuals and companies.

Talarico leads in Senate race

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading Ken Paxton in most Senate race polls. The Cook Political Report lists the race as a "toss up," though Republican groups are flooding Paxton with campaign cash in the closing months.

Talarico sees data centers as crisis

Talarico told CNBC: "I think data centers brings together a lot of the issues that people are concerned about: cost of living, corruption in our government, artificial intelligence, and the fact that our government seems to be MIA when it comes to creating guardrails for this new technology."

“I think data centers brings together a lot of the issues that people are concerned about: cost of living, corruption in our government, artificial intelligence, and the fact that our government seems to be MIA when it comes to creating guardrails for this new technology.”

Hinojosa calls for moratorium

Democratic nominee for governor Gina Hinojosa has called for a moratorium on data centers until laws can be passed to protect people from potential impacts on the environment, local economies or the power grid.

McCallister considers voting Democrat

McCallister, a lifelong Republican who voted for Trump three times, said he has never voted for a Democrat but is considering it for the first time. Data centers will be the top issue as he makes his decision.

McCallister launches grassroots effort

Overcoming his skepticism of social media, McCallister created a Facebook page and launched a nonprofit calling for stricter data center regulations, connecting with a network of Texans opposed to data centers.

Texas could become largest market

Data center developments have flooded into Texas due to its pro-business ethos and vast open land. By one projection, Texas is expected to overtake Virginia as the largest global data center market by twenty thirty.

Industry touts economic benefits

Dan Diorio, executive vice president of state policy for the Data Center Coalition, said projects bring massive capital investments and tax revenues for schools and infrastructure, and create jobs for construction workers during build-out.

Voter concern depends on context

Joshua Blank, research director at the Texas Politics Project, said whether data centers determine election outcomes will depend on "broader questions about economic stewardship and whether or not data centers are getting preferential treatment when people feel like their own cost of living is going up."

“broader questions about economic stewardship and whether or not data centers are getting preferential treatment when people feel like their own cost of living is going up.”

The short version

Data center backlash is reshaping Texas politics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with 57% of voters opposing facilities in their communities and Democrats positioning themselves as the anti-data-center party.

Read the original on CNBC

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