Oil could spike past $100 on U.S.-Iran military risk

80% chance of renewed fighting

Bob McNally, CEO of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC he sees an 80% chance of resumed U.S.-Iran military action as the midterm elections recede into the past.

“a resumption of military fighting”

Oil expected to breach $100

McNally predicts both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures will rise above $100 a barrel. They currently trade at about $100 and $91 respectively.

Trump's nuclear weapon priority

McNally said Trump is determined to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and having them give up their nuclear capabilities, almost at all costs as a legacy item.

“President Donald Trump is determined, as a legacy item, almost at all costs, to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon”

Iran refuses nuclear concessions

The Iranian regime is unwilling to give up nuclear capabilities, McNally said. This core difference in negotiating positions means the escalation dynamic remains in place.

“The Iranian regime, on the other hand, is not willing to do it.”

Lame duck window for strikes

Analysts at Lombard Odier said the period before the new Congress is sworn in could give Trump a window to resume strikes against Iran, though munitions supply constraints may limit duration.

Iran proposes nuclear talks

Iran reportedly sent the U.S. a nuclear proposal through Qatar, but only after Washington meets seven demands including ending acts of aggression and the naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Ghalibaf attacks Vance's midterm blame

Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized U.S. Vice President JD Vance for blaming the Iran war for Republican midterm losses, calling it losing gambler energy.

“losing gambler energy”

War fuels inflation concerns

The conflict has contributed to higher global energy costs, feeding into broader concerns over inflation and cost of living that influenced voters in the midterm elections.