Oil prices finish week flat

U.S. crude fell 1.6% to $100.30 per barrel while Brent dropped 0.9% to $103.87, marking the third straight session of declines after a drone attack damaged Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.

Drone attack closes Saudi pipeline

A drone launched from Iraq damaged Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline last Thursday, forcing its shutdown. Oil prices have gained more than 5% since the attack.

Saudis reroute oil through Hormuz

Saudi Arabia moved 2.8 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz over six days, up from just 700,000 bpd in August. JPMorgan estimates Middle East flows averaged 17 million bpd over the past 10 days.

“Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong despite the disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline”

Volumes may not be sustainable

JPMorgan warns that current rerouted volumes might be difficult to maintain long-term. The analyst noted the workaround depends on Iran allowing it to continue.

“For now, the workaround appears to be working, so long as Iran allows it to”

Houthis pose ongoing threat

Yemen's Houthi allies retain drone and weapons supplies for further attacks on the pipeline and Red Sea infrastructure. RBC Capital Markets warns risks remain if attacks escalate or extend past September.

“Risk remains skewed toward a larger disruption if the pipeline outage extends past September”

Outage expected through September

Rapidan Energy estimates the pipeline closure will constrain Saudi crude production and exports at least through the end of September, with potential for longer disruption if attacks continue.