From CNBC · Lorie Konish · · 1m 30s
Social Security's 2027 raise is shaping up bigger
Fresh inflation data points to the largest Social Security bump in three years, and the official number lands in October.
In brief
Fresh inflation data points to the largest Social Security bump in three years, and the official number lands in October. Expect roughly a 3.5% raise for 2027, worth about $68 to $75 more a month, but the final figure is not set until October. Originally reported by CNBC.
A bigger raise is coming
New estimates put the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment at 3.5% to 3.6%. That would be the largest annual bump in three years.
Last year set the bar
About 75 million Social Security and SSI recipients got a 2.8% increase for 2026. Anything near 3.5% clears that comfortably.
Oil prices are the wild card
Analyst Mary Johnson now pegs the COLA at 3.5%, up from her 3.4% call in August. She says volatile oil prices since the Iran war could still swing it.
What it means per check
The Senior Citizens League figures 3.5% adds $67.90 to the average monthly check. AARP's 3.6% forecast works out to about $75 more for the average retired worker.
How the number is built
The COLA compares third-quarter CPI-W, a wage-earner subset of the consumer price index, year over year. CPI-W rose 3.5% in the 12 months through August.
October makes it official
One more month of inflation data goes into the calculation before the Social Security Administration announces the 2027 figure, as it usually does in October.
The essence
Expect roughly a 3.5% raise for 2027, worth about $68 to $75 more a month, but the final figure is not set until October.
