Three commitments, three speeds

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Washington on Thursday as soybean purchases, Boeing aircraft orders and rare earths access progress at markedly different speeds.

The May agreement reaffirmed

Their May meeting in Beijing reaffirmed China's commitment to increase U.S. soybean purchases and buy two hundred Boeing aircraft, while Chinese rare earths shipments resumed after export controls were suspended for twelve months beginning last November.

Balance of vulnerability

Analysts describe the relationship as détente driven by a balance of vulnerability. Both sides are acutely aware of the other's choke points but neither wants renewed escalation that would damage commerce.

“Both sides are "acutely aware of the other's choke points,"”

Soybeans: the clearest signal

China has bought almost half its twenty five million ton annual commitment after purchasing roughly one million tons from U.S. producers in a single week in September, according to Reuters.

Soybean purchases cluster around meetings

Purchases tend to spike before bilateral meetings between Trump and Xi, then fall off again. China strategist Andy Rothman noted things pick up before key meetings, suggesting political signaling rather than steady demand.

“Things pick up a little bit before the bilateral meetings between Trump and Xi ... and then fall off again”

Aircraft orders lag behind

Progress on the two hundred aircraft commitment is less transparent. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said roughly one hundred forty aircraft were in a good state, with orders for another ten being written, but customers and delivery timelines remain undisclosed.

Rare earths: the strategic test

Chinese shipments of rare earths magnets fell to five hundred twelve metric tons in August, down twenty percent from July and thirteen percent from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data reported by the Financial Times.

Rare earths reveal true stakes

Some Chinese suppliers have declined U.S. orders due to geopolitical concerns, while some American companies waited more than six months for export licenses. Rare earths matter most because they signal each nation's willingness to make strategic concessions.

China's strongest card it cannot play

Rare earths could anchor a durable relationship in a way soybeans and aircraft cannot. But a complete cutoff would push the U.S. and allies to build alternative supply chains while hurting Chinese producers dependent on global markets.

“China's "strongest card, in other words, is one it cannot play in full,"”