A head count, not a rate call

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh goes into this week's two-day meeting facing a tricky vote tally. The quarter-point hike looks settled. How many of the 12 FOMC voters back it does not.

Markets have already decided

As of Monday afternoon, futures traders put better than 92% odds on a hike this week and more than 75% on another in December. Fed funds sit at 3.50% to 3.75%.

Backing down would cost him

Former New York Fed president Bill Dudley says a hold now would gut Warsh's credibility after he warned the Fed would act absent real progress on inflation.

“It would really damage his credibility because it would basically be all talk, no action.”

Fuel prices forced the issue

Another run-up in energy costs and August data showing prices still climbing pushed expectations toward action, after Warsh said the Fed would move without clearer signs inflation was heading to 2%.

The case against hiking

Goldman Sachs sees no strong economic reason to move. Tariffs and the energy shock from the Iran war are one-time hits, and the Fed has historically looked through exactly this kind of price pressure.

“We do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate.”

Goldman flipped anyway

The firm switched its call from hold to hike, not because the economics changed but because its economists think market expectations will force the Fed's hand.

Four votes have to move

July ended 9-3 for a hold. Dallas's Lorie Logan, Cleveland's Beth Hammack and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari all wanted a quarter point then. Four more members would need to switch.

Waller is the one to watch

On Sept. 3 the governor argued for patience over a rush to tighten, pointing out that a single 25 basis point move does nothing on its own.

“What's the cost of waiting one meeting?”

The core number is calmer

August headline CPI ran at 3.4%, but core, which strips out food and energy, came in at 2.4%, down a tenth from July. That gap is what the patience camp keeps pointing to.

Williams also wants to wait

The New York Fed president, part of the Fed's traditional inner troika, told CNBC a wait-and-see approach makes sense and said earlier in the summer that he thinks inflation has peaked.

The undecided middle

Warsh and Lisa Cook lean toward hiking. Paulson and Goolsbee counsel patience. That leaves Jefferson, a quiet Jerome Powell and Bowman, who last spoke on policy in May, as the swing bloc.

Dissent may vanish on cue

JPMorgan's David Kelly expects fence-sitters to fall in line once a majority forms, leaving two dissents, one or none. A hike could look lopsided in hindsight even if it was close.

“The other members may well join them to portray a more united front to the public and the President.”

Then comes the dot plot

The grid shows all 19 participants' rate views, though Warsh withheld his in June. Investors want conviction on two hikes this year, plus the first read on 2029.