From CNBC · Lim Hui Jie · · 2m
Xi lands in India, and the border is still the problem
Xi Jinping's first India trip since 2019 puts a fragile thaw, a $112 billion trade gap, and a decades-old border dispute on one table.
In brief
Xi Jinping's first India trip since 2019 puts a fragile thaw, a $112 billion trade gap, and a decades-old border dispute on one table. The Modi-Xi reset is real but shallow: flights and pilgrimages have resumed while the border and the trade imbalance, the two things that actually matter, remain unsolved. Originally…
Xi returns to India
Beijing confirmed Xi Jinping will attend the BRICS summit in India, his first visit since 2019 and since the deadly 2020 border clashes froze relations.
The real test
A bilateral with Modi on the sidelines would be the clearest measure yet of whether the post-2020 reset between Asia's two biggest economies is more than atmospherics.
“It's a great opportunity to use the BRICS summit as an excuse to have a really substantive bilateral meeting.”
A border that never closed
The dispute dates back decades and produced a war in 1962. In August, Wang Yi and Ajit Doval made what analysts called notable progress on it.
Signs of a thaw
Direct flights have resumed, border trade and Himalayan pilgrimages are back, and New Delhi has loosened rules on Chinese investment.
Why India is hedging
Tariff fights with the second Trump administration pushed New Delhi to invest elsewhere: resource deals with Australia, Indonesia and Uzbekistan, trade deals with the UK and EU.
“Recent Indian government actions confirm India's continuing commitment to strategic hedging.”
Distrust in the mountains
Even mid-thaw, Beijing reportedly denied Indian Army access to key patrolling points in August and encroached on land in Arunachal Pradesh.
BRICS can't fix this
Carnegie India's Sahai warns against inflated expectations. The bloc was built to reform global financial governance, not to settle territorial fights.
“It gets conflated with Russia and China's border issues, but that is not what the group is trying to solve.”
A record deficit
Total trade hit $151.1 billion in the year to March 2026, but India's deficit with China climbed to a record $112.16 billion, up from $99.21 billion.
Dependence as leverage
India's green energy push runs on Chinese batteries, giving Beijing a lever to stall it. A think tank calls the export controls a national security challenge.
Both sides hold back
India has restricted Chinese aluminium foil and electrical steel. China guards technology transfers as India grows into the world's second-largest phone maker.
The main idea
The Modi-Xi reset is real but shallow: flights and pilgrimages have resumed while the border and the trade imbalance, the two things that actually matter, remain unsolved.
