From Daily Maverick · Aldu Cornelissen · · 2m
AI Cannot Predict SA's 2026 Elections But May Influence November 4 Polls
AI models can't predict South Africa's 2026 election outcome but shape voter perceptions.
In brief
AI models can't predict South Africa's 2026 election outcome but shape voter perceptions. AI tools cannot forecast South Africa's 2026 local government elections but may influence November 4 polling through repeated narratives. Originally reported by Daily Maverick.
AI Models Cannot Predict 2026 Elections
/file/attachments/orphans/murmur-AI-elections_627760.jpg)
AI models do not know how South Africans will vote on 4 November 2026.
AI Adoption Grows in South Africa
/file/attachments/orphans/image3_582879.png)
10% of respondents used AI chatbots for news in the previous week, up from 7% a year earlier.
Trust in AI Chatbots Remains Low
/file/attachments/orphans/image1_599145.png)
Only 20% of respondents trust what chatbots tell them about news.
AI Models Analyze Political Landscape
/file/attachments/orphans/Screenshot2026-10-15at102610_355049.png)
LLMEKNOW tested six AI models with 1,247 simulated South African voters.
AI Predicts ANC at 37% in 2026
AI models suggest the ANC would win 37% of votes nationally in 2026 elections.
AI Models Show Party Rankings
Five models ranked the ANC first in 36 municipalities, MK in eight, DA in six, and IFP in two.
AI Results Match 2024 and Polls
AI figures differ from 2024 results by 2.5 percentage points and from polls by three points.
Municipal Differences in AI Predictions
In 14 municipalities, different AI models rank different parties first.
AI Models Describe Political Trends
AI models link ANC decline to corruption and service failures, EFF to youth unemployment.
AI Models Reinforce Perceptions
Repetitive AI narratives may reinforce incorrect voter perceptions about election outcomes.
AI Models Lack Real-Time Data
AI models cannot detect current voter sentiment or local events without web search.
AI Predictions May Influence Polls
AI answers could shape voter perceptions even without accurate predictions.
AI Models Show Political Trends
AI models extend political narratives from training data to predict election outcomes.
AI Models May Shape Future Elections
AI tools could influence voter behavior by reinforcing existing political narratives.
In short
AI tools cannot forecast South Africa's 2026 local government elections but may influence November 4 polling through repeated narratives.
