What gets decided in midterms

Midterm elections decide every House seat, a third of the Senate and many state offices, potentially reshaping Donald Trump's final years in power.

Why elections happen halfway through

A president serves four years. House members serve two-year terms. A third of senators serve six-year terms. So midterms happen halfway through a presidential term.

How many seats are up for grabs

All four hundred thirty-five House seats are up for election. Between thirty-three and thirty-five Senate seats are contested, depending on retirements or deaths in office.

Senate representation by state

Each state elects two senators, regardless of population. A third of the Senate's members are elected every two years to make it a more deliberative body than the House.

House seats by population

House seats are apportioned by state population. California, Texas, Illinois, Florida and New York have larger shares. Wyoming, North Dakota and Delaware have only one or two members.

States run their own elections

Individual states administer midterm and presidential elections under powers reserved to them by the Constitution. Each state determines voter eligibility, registration and how votes are tabulated.

Primaries pick party candidates

Primary elections and caucuses are organised by parties to select their candidates for the November election. Primaries depend on eligible voters picking their candidate from declared candidates within a party.

Trump's polling is historically low

President Donald Trump's polling numbers are in historically low territory as a result of anger over kitchen-table issues such as increasing prices of food and fuel, higher interest rates and dissatisfaction over the Middle East conflict.

Democrats favoured to win House

Many commentators and polls predict a significant shift towards Democrats in many congressional districts likely to give them control of the House of Representatives.

Democrats could flip Senate too

There is a possibility that Democrats will shift four or more Senate seats into their column, giving them control there too. Some polling points to possible Democratic wins in Senate races that have been safe for Republicans for a generation.

What Democrats could do with power

If Democrats win one or both houses, they will schedule votes on legislation and hold hearings on Trump administration policies. They can issue subpoenas for officials to testify and summonses for government documents.

Vance calls for Republican victory

Vice-President JD Vance has asked the electorate to elect Republicans so they can finish the job they have been embarking on, rather than advocating specific initiatives and policies.

“finish the job”

Democrats struggle with message

Democrats have had difficulties articulating a national, party-wide set of ideas besides throw the rascals out, given the split between its progressive and more moderate establishment party leaders.

“throw the rascals out”

AI and data centres emerge as issue

A surprise in this year's electoral cycle has been the rapid rise of voter concerns over AI and large data centres. The future impact of AI on jobs and income security has become an issue transcending party politics.

Campaign costs run to millions

Running for public office in the US is expensive. A majority of candidates cannot self-finance their campaigns. In some campaigns, costs run to millions of dollars for staffing, travel, communication and advertising.

SuperPACs and dark money dominate

Federal law limits individual contributions to three thousand eight hundred dollars per candidate per election. SuperPACs can raise and spend unlimited sums from billionaires, corporations and labour unions. Dark money groups can pour hundreds of millions into SuperPACs while masking donor sources.

Democrats could reshape foreign policy

Should Democrats claim one or both houses, expect massively heightened scrutiny of Trump administration policies, efforts to reverse some or many of these, and pressures towards rebuilding fractured relationships with traditional allies and alliances.

Election will reshape America's direction

Even if a majority of eligible voters choose not to exercise their franchise, the results of this year's midterm election will be consequential for Americans and the rest of the world.