From Daily Maverick · Stephen Grootes · · 3m
ANC-DA coalition will survive elections and grow stronger
Despite campaign tensions, the maths and longer-term interests of South Africa's ruling parties make their coalition likely to endure and deepen.
In brief
Despite campaign tensions, the maths and longer-term interests of South Africa's ruling parties make their coalition likely to endure and deepen. The ANC-DA national coalition will survive the local elections and could grow stronger because both parties' leaders, members and voters share economic interests that make…
Coalition tested by local elections
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The local elections will provide the toughest test yet for the ANC-DA national coalition. Despite campaign tensions, longer-term interests suggest the partnership will survive.
Mbalula warns DA after court victory
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After the Constitutional Court allowed the ANC to include previously disallowed candidates, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula suggested it was time for the DA to leave the coalition.
DA opposed ANC's candidate inclusion
The DA had joined the Constitutional Court case and argued that the ANC's candidates should not be included because it was inconsistent with previous rulings.
ANC has members who prefer alternatives
Many ANC members were never happy with the party's decision to work with the DA and would have preferred working with the MK party or the EFF instead.
Mathematics makes coalition simplest
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The ANC and DA together have a commanding majority in Parliament. This is the only key relationship in the national coalition and makes it mathematically the simplest possible arrangement.
MK and EFF are structurally unstable
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Both the MK party and the EFF are structured around one person who makes all decisions of consequence. Both individuals have betrayed the ANC in the past and have interests in weakening it.
MK succession remains unclear
Even if Jacob Zuma were no longer MK's leader, it is unclear who would take over. Would it be Tony Yengeni, Duduzane Zuma or someone else, and would they be seen as legitimate?
Coalition voters share economic interests
ANC and DA voters are generally insiders in the economy with formal jobs and property. They share interests that make them wary of the radical change promised by MK and the EFF.
Local government dynamics more complex
Local government involves the ANC's local structures and is more complicated than national government. A small group cannot simply make a decision and force the rest of the party to follow.
Temperature will rise before November
The political temperature is likely to rise further ahead of four November. The coalition will be tested during the campaign, but the temperature before the two thousand twenty-four elections gave this impression too.
Coalition likely to survive and deepen
The longer-term interests of the leaders, members and voters of the ANC and the DA make it likely the coalition will survive this period and could perhaps even become closer.
The bottom line
The ANC-DA national coalition will survive the local elections and could grow stronger because both parties' leaders, members and voters share economic interests that make alternatives unstable.
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