A modest court ruling

On seven July, the Constitutional Court handed down the Scalabrini judgment. It said asylum seekers cannot be turned away on procedural grounds before their claims are heard.

“asylum seekers cannot be turned away at the door on procedural grounds, such as how they entered the country, before anyone hears their claim”

Home Affairs implements the ruling

The Department of Home Affairs issued an operational directive on the judgment. It told refugee reception offices to resume accepting new applications and not turn people away for unlawful entry, missing documents or reporting late.

The distortion begins

On three October, Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma of March and March posted widely shared opposition to the directive. She framed it as a United Nations-imposed registration of illegal immigrants.

Online conversation explodes

Murmur Intelligence analysed ninety eight thousand four hundred nineteen posts from eighteen thousand nine hundred nineteen X users between three and nine October.On three October there were roughly four thousand relevant posts.

The false claim spreads

The disingenuous reframing of the Scalabrini judgment was that the ruling grants citizenship to all asylum seekers.

“over 3 million”

Multiple false claims emerge

Misinformation focused on knock-on effects of the misrepresentation. Claims included asylum seekers having unfair access to grants and pensions, distortions around jobs and labour law, and that asylum seekers might vote in the four November…

Home Affairs denies the claims

On seven October, the Department of Home Affairs called claims that the judgment grants citizenship or blanket legalisation categorically false.It described an apparent coordinated disinformation campaign and referred the matter to the Independent Electoral Commission.

“categorically false”

March and March leads the charge

Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma's earliest high-engagement post on three October had roughly two thousand reposts. Her posts were reposted thousands of times over the week, more than twice any other account in the movement.

Coordinated amplification patterns

Forty percent of all reposts amplified just twenty accounts' content.Ninety percent of posts were reposts.

Key influencers in the network

Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma anchors the March and March community with Dzungie zero zero seven a clear second. Durban Network, a local live-update account, played a key role. Mega influencers Chris Excel and Knick were also prominent.

From online to the streets

Mobilisation language peaked on six October when posts reported March and March members closing the Home Affairs office on Moore Road in Durban.

Political parties amplify the message

ActionSA gave the anti-directive messaging political weight.On seven October, ActionSA Chief Whip Lerato Ngobeni said the party viewed the directive with grave concern.

“cannot become a back door for illegal immigration”

Rebuttals drowned out

Criticisms of the Scalabrini ruling implementation peaked on seven October.Rebuttals peaked a day later and made up just zero point nine percent of X posts.On YouTube debunking videos drew fewer comments than the coverage.

Elections loom as next flashpoint

Calls for a national shutdown on thirty one October surfaced on five and six October.