Democrats' US election win offers South Africa a chance

Democrats seize control of Congress

As of Thursday morning, five November, Democrats had won fifty four Senate seats and at least two hundred forty five House seats. The election was a stunning rebuke of President Donald Trump.

Ramaphosa sees new era ahead

President Cyril Ramaphosa said the Democratic landslide will introduce a new era in world relations. He said South Africa is always willing to have good relations with the US.

Steenhuisen calls it biggest Republican defeat

John Steenhuisen, the DA MP and deputy minister of trade, industry and competition, called it the complete and utter repudiation of Trump and his Maga movement, the biggest Republican defeat since Watergate.

Key committees now led by Democrats

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will now be chaired by a Democrat. The House Ways and Means Committee will also be chaired by Democrats, offering South Africa a more sympathetic hearing.

Chance to reverse Agoa removal

Bob Wekesa, director of the African Centre for the Study of the US at Wits University, said South Africa had a credible chance of leveraging the Democratic majority to rescind Trump's decision to remove South…

Sixty days to reverse the decision

The legislation requires the administration to give a country sixty days' notice of Washington's intention to remove it from Agoa. South Africa has until early January to try to reverse the decision.

Senior Democrats condemn Agoa removal

In a joint statement on four November, Gregory Meeks and senator Jeanne Shaheen condemned the decision. They said Trump had prioritised political spectacle over US strategic interests.

But the president still decides

Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, national director of the SA Institute of International Affairs, cautioned that although Agoa was a law passed by Congress, decisions about eligibility lay with the president.

Agoa's declining importance to South Africa

Minister Parks Tau noted that Agoa exports were valued at about one point seven billion dollars in two thousand twenty five, down from four billion dollars in two thousand twenty four.

Agoa is just one percent of exports

Agoa exports are about one percent of South Africa's total global exports. About ten percent of South African exports to the US entered under Agoa in two thousand twenty five, down from twenty eight percent…

Congress may tackle Trump's tariffs

Some analysts saw the Democratic victory as offering the possibility of reducing US trade tariffs on South Africa, as Congress has more power over tariffs than the executive branch.

Hakeem Jeffries targets Trump tariffs

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, likely to become House Speaker, said overturning Trump's tariffs would be a top priority of Democrats in their first one hundred days.

Steenhuisen urges free trade agreement

Steenhuisen suggested South Africa should negotiate a conventional reciprocal free trade agreement with the US instead of relying on Agoa. This would provide certainty for agriculture and manufacturing planning.

Democrats vow to oppose Afrikaner refugee ban

Democrats have vowed to oppose Trump's decision to restrict refugee admissions to white South African Afrikaners. Gregory Meeks said it was not just a racist dog whistle but a politically motivated rewrite of history.

Democratic concerns about non-alignment persist

Joshua Meservey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, noted that US concern about South Africa's non-alignment is bipartisan. Democratic senator Chris Coons proposed reviewing South Africa's Agoa eligibility over its failure to condemn Russia.

Right-wing groups lose influence in Washington

Steenhuisen said the rout of Trump had been a major blow to right-wingers such as AfriForum who are like-minded with Trump. These groups have been lobbying to give South Africa a hard time.

Lex Libertas disputes the impact

Ernst Roets, executive director of Lex Libertas, disagreed. He said Trump is still the president and even Democrats are frustrated by South Africa's conduct, so international attention will continue.

Trump may retreat to foreign policy

Steenhuisen warned that Trump, now a lame duck domestically, may retreat into areas where he has presidential power. He could double down on his international agenda where he is far less constrained by Congress.

Lame duck Trump poses foreign policy danger

Political scientists Daniel W Drezner and Elizabeth N Saunders write that lame ducks often turn to foreign policy. A cornered Trump with no obvious constructive outlet may lash out internationally.

“As they think about their legacy, lame ducks often turn to foreign policy, where the power of the presidency allows them to act unfettered by pesky domestic politics.”