From Daily Maverick · Stephen Grootes · · 3m
Local elections will show how far the ANC has fallen
South Africa's 2026 local elections will reveal the ANC's rate of decline and reshape the political landscape ahead of 2029.
In brief
South Africa's 2026 local elections will reveal the ANC's rate of decline and reshape the political landscape ahead of 2029. The 2026 local elections will signal whether the ANC continues its decline and whether the DA could become an equal partner in national government by 2029. Originally reported by Daily Maverick.
Local elections as a signpost
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Next month's local elections will reveal how far the ANC has fallen and signal what will happen in the 2029 national elections. They will show whether immigration, crime and violence become more urgent issues.
ANC missed the warning signs
In both 2019 and 2024, several ANC members expressed surprise at how fast their party was losing votes. They had not been paying attention to the results of local elections, which are the best yardstick for national outcomes.
The 2016 warning
In 2016 the ANC lost power in Joburg and Nelson Mandela Bay for the first time. This signalled it would fall to 57.5 percent in the national election and just 50.4 percent in Gauteng.
The 2021 prediction came true
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The 2021 local elections showed the ANC's share falling to 45.59 percent across the country. This correctly predicted it would fall further to just 40.18 percent in the 2024 national elections.
The critical question now
The real question is the rate of ANC decline. If the ANC falls below 30 percent, it would indicate it could be at that level or even lower in 2029.
A shift in power dynamics
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If the DA increases its share to about 30 percent, it would have huge implications for the relationship between the ANC and DA. They could become much more equal partners in national government after 2029 than they are now.
Coalition durability at stake
The biggest longer-term issue these results could illuminate is whether future coalitions in national government will be durable. If voters support parties willing to work together above the 50 percent mark, that might show coalitions could work.
Campaign issues taking shape
These elections will show which issues become more politically prominent. If parties campaigning on immigration gain strong support, it would indicate this issue could become more urgent in 2029.
Crime and the death penalty
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Current levels of violent crime and the state's inability to deal with it create fertile ground for parties campaigning for a tougher approach, including reintroduction of the death penalty. Some parties might amplify this message now to make it bigger in 2029.
Geordin Hill-Lewis's first test
This is Geordin Hill-Lewis's first election as DA leader. The real test is whether he can campaign strongly in Gauteng and give articulate responses on race that resonate with black voters.
ANC leadership in turmoil
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The ANC appears to have leadership problems. Its reliance on President Cyril Ramaphosa on election posters and inability to decide on mayoral candidates reveals a party in apparent turmoil. No ANC leader is campaigning publicly.
Smaller parties' opportunity
This local election is an important opportunity for leaders of smaller parties to make a mark. The person best able to harness current issues through social media or a viral speech might gain coverage for the national election.
Turnout patterns may differ
These elections will be a turnout election where some vote simply against the incumbent. But in national elections, where local dynamics are less prevalent, turnout patterns might be significantly different, so results must be analysed carefully.
What to remember
The 2026 local elections will signal whether the ANC continues its decline and whether the DA could become an equal partner in national government by 2029.
