War begins, ripples spread

The US-Israel war on Iran began on 28 February 2026. The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding collapsed, deepening regional instability and exposing wider global costs beyond the Middle East.

Global costs mount quickly

The war has caused human suffering, infrastructure damage, rising oil and gas prices, higher living costs, falling stock markets, inflationary pressure, and heavier debt burdens for poorer countries.

War becomes a home issue

In the UK, thirty-eight percent of Britons said limiting the economic consequences of the war in Iran was a top foreign policy priority, second only to strengthening the UK's national security.

Four forces collide

When geopolitics, geoeconomics, geography and global power collide, as they have in this war, the result is cascading instability. The exit ramp is diplomacy, not war.

“When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.”

No single power dominates

The war has exposed the absence of a hegemonic power.The world is a two-tier multipolar order shaped by divided major powers.

Middle powers gain prominence

Traditional middle powers such as the UK and France and emerging middle powers such as Turkey, India, Brazil and Indonesia exercise influence through alliances including BRICS Plus, the G20, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Stalemate demands collective action

In a multipolar environment marked by asymmetrical power dynamics and absence of a dominant hegemon, wars are more likely to reach stalemate.This places greater responsibility on major and middle powers to create pathways to peace.

Middle powers broker ceasefire

The June ceasefire was agreed at the behest of emerging middle powers such as Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, together with tacit support from major power China. Middle powers cannot shape global outcomes alone.

Middle powers must unite

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said at Davos that middle powers must act together because if they are not on the table, they are on the menu.

“Middle powers must act together because, if we are not on the table, we are on the menu.”

Trade becomes a weapon

Trade is being used in the twenty-first century less as a tool of cooperation and more as a source of leverage.Governments mitigate trade dependency by disrupting supply chains, restricting critical minerals and constraining semiconductor access.

Chokepoints hold global power

The Strait of Hormuz is only thirty-three kilometres wide at its narrowest point yet carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, including thirty-eight percent of crude oil flows, nineteen percent of liquefied natural…

Iran weaponises geography

Iran's response to fighting an asymmetrical war against a militarily superior opponent is to weaponise trade through geoeconomics and exploit its geographic advantage by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and, with Houthi support, the Strait…

Infrastructure becomes target

Critical infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar are targeted, although responsibility was officially denied.This restricted the flow of oil, gas and other products from the region.

Dialogue offers the path

World leaders at the United Nations called for a return to multilateralism, the protection of sovereignty and a rules-based international order.The Global South at the BRICS Plus summit in September 2026 also emphasised this message.

Citizens drive change too

Citizens have shown they can be drivers of change, whether by forming human chains in Iran to protect critical infrastructure or through public opinion in the US opposing the war.

Negotiations point toward peace

Although the US-Iran war appears caught in cycles of peace efforts followed by attacks and counterattacks, the direction of travel still points towards a negotiated settlement.

Past deals show what works

The Iranian nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, endorsed by United Nations Security Council Resolution twenty twenty thirty-one of twenty fifteen, shows what can be achieved when parties sit at the negotiating table…