Leopard numbers: a mystery

South Africa's leopard population estimates range from 2,185 to 23,400 individuals, a gap of more than 21,000 animals. Dr Michael 't Sas-Rolfes at Stellenbosch University's African Wildlife Economy Institute says estimates vary by an order of magnitude.

“We don't really know how many leopards still survive in South Africa; estimates vary by an order of magnitude: 2,185 to 23,400 individuals.”

Quotas set despite uncertainty

Leopard trophy export quotas for 2026 and 2027 have been set even though the draft National Leopard Strategy and Action Plan remains open for public comment. Michele Pickover, executive director of the EMS Foundation, calls this particularly concerning.

“It is particularly concerning.”

The gazetted admission

The draft document admits South Africa does not know how many leopards survive. It also states the country is at a critical juncture in leopard conservation, with the species suffering substantial range loss across nearly seventy percent of land south of the Limpopo and Orange rivers.

Public comment deadline

The draft National Leopard Strategy and Action Plan was published on September fourth with thirty days for public submissions. South Africans have until October fourth to comment on the national plan for one of the country's most elusive predators.

The government's vision

The government proposes a national vision where leopards thrive in living landscapes, support cultural traditions and local livelihoods through inclusive, community-driven conservation. This reaches beyond formally protected areas, making private and communal landowners decisive for the species.

Urban versus rural divide

Dr 't Sas-Rolfes notes that leopards can threaten the lives and livelihoods of local rural people while being revered by urban people and foreign tourists who do not experience day-to-day realities of living with them. This disparity shapes how different groups view protection.

Two visions of precaution

Radical protectionists argue for the lowest possible estimate and the precautionary principle to restrict hunting. Many private landowners argue numbers are higher and that excessive restrictions remove their incentive to tolerate leopards that prey on livestock and valuable wild antelope.

Private land, private stakes

Two-thirds of South Africa's wildlands are privately protected areas and wildlife ranches. Dr 't Sas-Rolfes says many private landowners complain the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment's approach to setting hunting quotas is excessively cautious, resulting in unnecessary leopard losses from illegal killings.

EMS Foundation's objection

Michele Pickover says South Africa does not have sufficiently robust, current and independently verifiable population and mortality data to justify additional killing of this Vulnerable species. The EMS Foundation wants a precautionary zero trophy-hunting quota and opposes an assumed role for trade in leopard body parts.

“South Africa does not yet have sufficiently robust, current and independently verifiable population and mortality data to justify additional killing of this Vulnerable species.”

Strategy is not implementation

Andrew Muir, CEO of the Wilderness Foundation, says the draft is primarily a national strategic framework and action roadmap, not yet the detailed, fully funded implementation programme that will determine what happens on the ground. The strategy itself recognises that lack of coordinated implementation has been a greatest obstacle.

Beyond the hunting debate

Muir warns against reducing sustainable use to a numerical quota. How an animal is hunted, the biological circumstances, the impact on the local population and wider ecological consequences are equally important. He urges not allowing the leopard debate to become simply a debate about hunting.

Non-lethal responses first

Dr Matthew Schurch, senior wildlife specialist at Humane World for Animals South Africa, supports elements like habitat and monitoring but argues non-lethal responses should come first. He welcomes proposed Biodiversity Management Agreements creating tax incentives for protecting leopards.

Leopards as sentient beings

Schurch objects to a draft that frames leopards through benefits or costs to people rather than recognising them as sentient animals with intrinsic value. South African law requires animal wellbeing to be considered in biodiversity management, and courts have linked protection of individual animals to broader conservation objectives.

“Stakeholder demand alone cannot render a harmful or poorly evidenced practice lawful, humane or sustainable.”

Balanced but dependent

Dr 't Sas-Rolfes believes the document offers a reasonably balanced and pragmatic approach to accommodating conflicting views. However, success hinges on government-led initiatives that could run into funding constraints. The core conservation challenge is ensuring rural people do not view leopards as pests to be eliminated.