From Daily Maverick · Stephen Grootes · · 2m
South Africa's fractured politics finds no dominant voice
Three weeks before local elections, no single narrative dominates national debate as society splinters into separate conversations.
In brief
Three weeks before local elections, no single narrative dominates national debate as society splinters into separate conversations. South Africa's local elections on November fourth lack a dominant national narrative, reflecting the ANC's decline and society's fracturing into separate political conversations…
No dominant narrative three weeks out
/file/attachments/orphans/Polls-posters-poor12_132837.jpg)
With just three weeks before South Africa's local government elections on November fourth, political parties are campaigning hard but have failed to create a single dominant narrative for national discussion.
Past elections turned on national issues
Previous local elections were often fought on national issues such as corruption or service delivery. The two thousand sixteen local elections were almost a poll measuring the popularity of then President Jacob Zuma.
Zuma dominated the twenty sixteen race
/file/attachments/2997/04AV_00057843_976754.jpg)
The Gauteng ANC said the Nkandla issue cost it votes in two thousand sixteen. Zuma overshadowed that election so completely that Gauteng ANC tried to stop the national party from using his image on posters.
Ramaphosa won but never dominated politics
By two thousand twenty-one, Cyril Ramaphosa had led the ANC to victory in the two thousand nineteen national and provincial elections.
Parties now preach only to followers
Political parties are merely preaching to their followers and addressing specific communities with generic messages. Their election posters tell people to vote for their gang because it's better than the other gang.
ANC's decline removes political anchor
The ANC is no longer able to dominate South African politics and has lost the control of society it held until the pandemic.
Race no longer frames every debate
Long-standing political drivers like race, which historically framed almost every national debate, no longer hold the same overwhelming sway over voters.
Society has fractured into separate conversations
/file/attachments/orphans/narrative-fractured1_331284.jpg)
South Africa has become more divided over the last decade as the rift between insiders and outsiders deepens and enclavisation continues.
Media fragmentation breaks shared reference
The SABC has much less influence now than in the past. Increasingly, discussions take place on podcasts as live broadcast media faces unprecedented competition, leaving no shared national reference point for political discourse.
Smaller actors rise in fragmented landscape
/file/attachments/orphans/Dekfoto_738738.jpg)
Lacking a shared national reference point, political discourse has fractured, prompting leaders and parties to focus on influencing their local communities.
Fragmentation will deepen and entrench
The ANC is likely to continue its decline while none of the other parties will be able to dominate national discussion.
The headline
South Africa's local elections on November fourth lack a dominant national narrative, reflecting the ANC's decline and society's fracturing into separate political conversations.
