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Berkeley: stamp duty is jamming the housing market
Britain's biggest London housebuilder says the tax now stops people moving, and buyers are sitting on their hands until the Budget.
In brief
Britain's biggest London housebuilder says the tax now stops people moving, and buyers are sitting on their hands until the Budget. Berkeley's argument is that stamp duty now costs the Treasury more in lost transactions than it collects, and buyers are waiting out the October 28 Budget before committing. Originally…
A housebuilder sounds the alarm
Berkeley Group says the housing market has deteriorated further and called on the Government to reform stamp duty, which it now labels a 'binding constraint' on moving.
“a 'binding constraint'”
Buyers are waiting it out
War in the Middle East and political uncertainty have knocked consumer sentiment. Berkeley says people are holding off on transactions until after the Budget.
The tax revenue argument
Berkeley's pitch is that the tax is self-defeating: more money is lost from a frozen market than is collected from the sales that do happen.
“far more tax revenue is being lost through depressed activity than is being gained”
Cap it at one per cent
Berkeley wants stamp duty capped at 1 per cent for first-time buyers and downsizers. A surcharge currently applies to anyone buying an additional residential property.
Built for a 0.25% world
Stamp duty was designed when interest rates sat at 0.25 per cent. Berkeley argues that what was a manageable friction then bites hard now that rates have normalised.
“What was a manageable frictional cost when interest rates were at those unique and unsustainable levels, has become a binding constraint”
Six per cent for every one
The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that each one per cent cut in stamp duty could lift transactions by as much as six per cent.
The knock-on for new homes
More transactions would make new schemes stack up financially, Berkeley says, which in turn supports the delivery of affordable housing alongside private sales.
Builders are pulling back
Berkeley and other UK housebuilders have curbed land buying and slowed construction as affordability pressure, political turmoil and energy cost inflation bite.
The market shrugs
Shares slipped to 3,290p and are down nearly 10 per cent in a year, 44 per cent below January 2020 highs. Analysts see a hold until recovery shows up.
“there is little new news within the update”
The bottom line
Berkeley's argument is that stamp duty now costs the Treasury more in lost transactions than it collects, and buyers are waiting out the October 28 Budget before committing.
