Luck, not good management

A leading energy analyst says Britain's rush to Net Zero means keeping the lights on this winter will come down to luck rather than planning.

Three shocks at once

Europe heads into winter with the Iran war squeezing supply, gas reserves at record lows, and a water shortage in Norway threatening its exports of hydro-electric power.

Britain is the most exposed

The dash for wind and solar, plus a run of power station closures, left the UK importing electricity from its neighbours instead of making enough of its own.

We can't meet our own demand

Energy consultant Kathryn Porter, who advises MPs on the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Energy Studies, says the system falls short exactly when the weather stops cooperating.

“We've put ourselves in a position where we can't meet our own demand, particularly when the wind doesn't blow.”

Each risk alone is survivable

Her point is about pile-up. Any one of these problems is manageable on its own. Arriving together, they turn a tight system into a fragile one.

“We can cope with these risks individually, but combined they are a threat. It means we have to be lucky all the time.”

A gamble every single winter

Run the same bet often enough and it eventually goes against you. Porter says losing means higher electricity prices first, then blackouts.

“Every single winter we're making this gamble, and eventually we'll lose.”

The cap climbs in October

Ofgem is raising the energy price cap by £60 to £1,723, a rise of 4 per cent, and experts expect household bills to surge from there.

Shadow minister sounds the alarm

Andrew Bowie, the shadow energy minister, called the looming electricity shortage increasingly dangerous and urged Labour to resume drilling in the North Sea.

The folly of sitting on resources

Bowie's argument is that Britain refuses to use what it already has, leaving it more exposed than any comparable country.

“It is a threat to our security and prosperity.”

Gas by Christmas, he says

Bowie claims the Jackdaw field near Aberdeen could be producing within months if ministers gave it the green light now.

“If we got the Jackdaw gas field up and running now, we could be pumping gas by Christmas.”

A decision parked for politics

A ruling on opening the giant Jackdaw field is reportedly being pushed back until after the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, a likely Labour versus Green fight with Zack Polanski standing.

The grid can't keep up

A National Audit Office report warns that delays to a £70billion grid upgrade will cost consumers billions, because the transmission system cannot handle the rapid shift to renewables.

£1.9billion a year on bills

The NAO puts a price on the 2030 clean grid target: around £1.9billion a year added to what households pay.

Neighbours may shut the tap

Norwegian politicians are already demanding export controls, arguing their country should not be treated as Europe's battery for everyone else's shortfall.

Then the market breaks down

If governments start hoarding spare capacity for their own voters, the cross-border trade Britain now leans on stops working.

“There's a danger governments will prioritise their own consumers.”

Reservoirs at a 20-year low

This year's heatwaves have pushed reservoir levels lower than at any point in two decades, and they are still falling.

Safety limits already breached

Whistleblowers at the National Energy System Operator said in June that electricity ran so short the grid breached its safety limits, prompting an independent inquiry.

Engineers flying blind

One Neso engineer said power cuts are now a mathematical certainty, with staff handed minimal information while trying to balance thousands of unpredictable wind and solar generators.

One cold, windless spell

Porter's worst case is a long stretch of high pressure with no wind. Add a single failure on top of that and the whole thing tips over.

“Losing one big power station or one big interconnector would be enough.”

A sensible way to run things?

She ends on the question nobody in charge wants asked about a grid that needs good fortune every single year.

“Who, in the cold light of day, could honestly say this is a sensible way to run things?”