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Study finds 'compelling evidence' Jesus resurrection testimony is 'true'
Math model shows 95% chance Jesus' followers would expose fake resurrection claims within 28 years.
In brief
Math model shows 95% chance Jesus' followers would expose fake resurrection claims within 28 years. Philosopher's study suggests Jesus' resurrection testimony is credible because witnesses' sustained claims would not have been fabricated. Originally reported by Dailymail.
Jesus' resurrection remains debated
A new study uses mathematics to reach a striking conclusion about Jesus' resurrection testimony.
Philosopher focuses on witness consistency
Nathan Rockwood, a philosopher at Brigham Young University in Utah, examines how early christian followers maintained claims of seeing jesus alive for years after crucifixion.
Model predicts exposure of fabrication
Rockwood's model assumes each person has a one percent annual chance of revealing a fabrication while accounting for witnesses dying over time.
16 witnesses show 95% exposure chance
For 16 witnesses, the model predicts a 95 percent chance of someone exposing a fabrication within 28 years.
23 witnesses show 17-year exposure
With 23 witnesses, the model predicts exposure within 17 years, a faster timeline for potential fabrication detection.
Witnesses' sincerity strengthens case
Rockwood argues that witnesses' sustained testimony, combined with biblical accounts of repeated conversations and physical contact with jesus, strengthens the resurrection claim.
Study cites empirical evidence
The study states that given the abundance of empirical evidence of the resurrected jesus provided to witnesses, their testimony would not be the result of perceptual error.
Paul's testimony matters
Paul's testimony is significant because he knew other leading figures in the early christian movement, including peter and james.
Rockwood's witness group
Rockwood's lower estimate of 16 includes the 11 remaining apostles, paul, james, jesus' brother, and three women associated with discovering the empty tomb.
Broader witness count
For the larger estimate, rockwood counts five women, adds two disciples who encountered jesus on the road to emmaus, and includes matthias and joseph, the candidates to replace judas.
Stephen completes the group
Stephen, who reported seeing a vision of jesus before being stoned to death, completes the group of 23.
Model based on historical risk
Rockwood adapts david robert grimes' research on large conspiracies to smaller groups claiming to have witnessed miracles.
Hume's scenario tested
The model illustrates hume's fictional scenario of queen elizabeth i dying and returning to life a month later.
Model shows deception unlikely
Rockwood argues that sustained testimony makes deliberate invention unlikely, while reported conversations and physical contact make an honest mistake unlikely.
Conclusion: testimony is true
The study concludes that the witnesses' testimony is either deception or truth, and it was not deception.
The main idea
Philosopher's study suggests Jesus' resurrection testimony is credible because witnesses' sustained claims would not have been fabricated.
