Global emissions set to fall for first time since 2020

Emissions to fall in 2026

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to drop zero point four percent in twenty twenty-six, according to the Global Carbon Budget report released as nations meet at COP31.

First drop since the pandemic

It would be the first annual drop since twenty twenty, when the Covid pandemic paralysed the global economy, trade and transport.

A decade of rising emissions

Emissions from burning oil, gas and coal rose by zero point nine percent per year on average in the past decade, hitting a record high in twenty twenty-five.

Iran war drives oil shock

The US-led war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a drop in oil consumption amid soaring crude prices, contributing to the emissions decline.

Renewables meet two-thirds of demand

Solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles contributed to the drop. Two thirds of the increase in global energy demand is being met by solar and wind power and electric vehicles.

Friedlingstein warns on sustainability

Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, said a decline driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.

“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.”

Clean energy is the long-term answer

Friedlingstein, who led the study published in Earth System Science Data, said the long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.

“The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.”

Rebound likely when tensions ease

Corinne Le Quere, a climate change science professor at the University of East Anglia, noted that emissions rebounded when economies recovered following shocks such as Covid or the global financial crisis.

Oil emissions drop is temporary

Oil-related emissions are projected to drop one point nine percent, but researchers said it was likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.

Gas and coal emissions diverge

Gas emissions are set to fall zero point three percent while those from coal use will rise zero point six percent in twenty twenty-six.

Total emissions still rising

Including emissions from land-use change such as deforestation, total CO2 emissions are projected to rise to forty-three point three billion tonnes, from forty-two point eight billion tonnes last year.

Southeast Asia fires drive land emissions

Land-use emissions are projected to rise partly due to peat fires and forest degradation in southeast Asia, associated with drier conditions linked to this year's exceptionally strong El Nino climate pattern.

Carbon budget exhausted in four years

The world's carbon budget for limiting warming to one point five degrees Celsius stands at one hundred fifty billion tonnes. At current rates, it would be exhausted in less than four years.

UN declares 1.5°C target will be missed

The United Nations declared in September that the long-term one point five degree Celsius target would be missed in a matter of years, despite the Paris agreement commitment to limit warming.

Rapid emissions cuts remain essential

Scientists say it is crucial to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels to limit the period of overshoot above one point five degrees Celsius and bring temperatures back down as quickly as possible.