Trump shifts US from aid to trade

Last year, US President Donald Trump told African leaders the United States would be shifting from aid to trade. Washington closed USAID and many allies cut their own aid programs.

But business interest in Africa is surging

Despite humanitarian cuts, international business interest in Africa is growing. The continent has critical minerals, a young workforce, growing consumers, and ports on vital trade routes.

Half of world's fastest-growing economies are African

Competition among China, the United States, Europe, India, and Gulf states is bringing more investors than ever. This year, roughly half of the world's twenty fastest-growing economies are likely to be African.

But gains won't be distributed evenly

Many African countries are too unstable, underdeveloped, or corrupt to attract foreign capital and will stay trapped in stagnation. Countries that attract investment and reform could see tremendous growth.

Africa remains a small global player

Africa makes up about twenty percent of the world's population but accounts for just three percent of GDP and three percent of global trade. Most foreign investment has gone to extracting oil, diamonds, and minerals.

Southern Africa leads regional growth

Southern Africa has good interstate infrastructure and low trade barriers.Twelve countries share a power pool connecting their grids.Botswana and Zambia are set to grow by four point seven and four point three percent this year.

Southern Africa's customs union coordinates trade

The world's oldest running customs union comprises Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa. The five countries coordinate trade policy, share customs revenue, and implement a common external tariff.

Other regions show commercial promise

Nigeria gives West Africa huge market scale with its entrepreneurial ecosystem. Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda form an increasingly valuable East African commercial core. Mauritius is an international financial center.

Africa's young population is a major advantage

By twenty forty, national cohorts of people between the ages of fifteen and forty-nine will decrease more or less everywhere outside sub-Saharan Africa.

“By 2040, national cohorts of people between the ages of 15 and 49 will decrease more or less everywhere outside sub-Saharan Africa.”

China built near monopoly on critical minerals

Sub-Saharan Africa holds thirty percent of known critical mineral reserves. China spent decades building a near monopoly over the critical mineral industry. China's investment over twenty years exceeded three hundred fifty billion dollars.

US and allies now competing for African minerals

Last year, the Trump administration announced deals to secure American access to minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda.

Gulf states emerging as major investors

The United Arab Emirates has become Africa's single largest source of new foreign direct investment, committing nearly one hundred ten billion dollars between twenty nineteen and twenty twenty-three, outspending China in some years.

Investment concentrated in just fifteen countries

Over eighty percent of foreign direct investment in Africa is concentrated in just fifteen countries, according to the United Nations. Investors need certainty about whether contracts, regulations, and governments will remain stable.

Coups and conflict deter investment

Military governments in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger between twenty twenty and twenty twenty-three drastically changed their countries' economic landscapes. Since twenty twenty, the continent has seen at least nine successful coups.

Zambia reforms attract investors, Congo does not

Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo both have vast mineral reserves.Zambia's systematic reforms since its twenty twenty debt default have restored stability and drawn renewed investor interest.

Electricity is the critical missing piece

Nearly six hundred million people in sub-Saharan Africa lack access to electricity.No country in the modern era has industrialized without affordable, reliable power.

Free trade area could unlock continental scale

The African Continental Free Trade Area, ratified by fifty of Africa's countries, aims to create one of the world's biggest duty-free zones.

African leaders hold the key to their future

There is unlikely to be a single African economic story. The same forces making the continent more important may widen differences among countries. African leaders have agency over which path their people take.