From Foreign Affairs · Philip H. Gordon · · 2m
America Shouldn’t Let Go of the Middle East
U.S. must rethink Middle East strategy after Iran war to avoid costly disengagement.
In brief
U.S. must rethink Middle East strategy after Iran war to avoid costly disengagement. U.S. should defend narrower core interests in Middle East with smaller military footprint and more diplomacy instead of disengagement. Originally reported by Foreign Affairs.
U.S. Middle East Policy
U.S. presidents from Clinton to Biden have repeatedly promised to focus on other regions but ended up entangled in Middle East conflicts.
“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.”
Iran War Debate
Michael Fuchs argues U.S. should withdraw from Middle East to end its role as guarantor of regional order after Iran war.
“end its role as guarantor of regional order”
Cost of Past Wars
Afghanistan and Iraq wars cost at least $2 trillion each and thousands of U.S. lives with little to show for it.
“cost at least $2 trillion each”
Military Vulnerability
U.S. bases in Middle East are vulnerable to Iranian drones and missiles, offering Tehran targets and leverage.
“vulnerable to Iranian drones and missiles”
Energy Security
Iran war shows U.S. oil prices rose 40 percent and diesel 70 percent after Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
“oil prices rose 40 percent”
Nuclear Proliferation
Saudi Crown Prince says if Iran gets nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will also get one.
“Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman”
Terrorism Threats
ISIS and affiliates remain capable of mass-casualty attacks despite decades of counterterrorism efforts.
“ISIS and affiliates”
Economic Ties
Gulf Cooperation Council states hold $2 trillion in U.S. assets and spend hundreds of billions on U.S. tech infrastructure.
“Gulf Cooperation Council states”
Disengagement Risks
U.S. withdrawal could lead to Gulf states hedging with China, Iran, and Pakistan, and increased regional instability.
“Gulf states hedging with China”
Military Posture
U.S. must overhaul military posture with smaller, more dispersed bases and better defenses to avoid vulnerability.
“smaller, more dispersed bases”
Diplomacy Over Force
U.S. should return to diplomacy to prevent Iranian nuclear program without military escalation.
“return to diplomacy”
Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia and UAE reroute five million barrels per day around Strait of Hormuz to bypass Iranian threats.
“five million barrels per day”
Conditionality
U.S. should enforce laws tying military aid to human rights to avoid complicity in conflicts.
“enforce laws tying military aid to human rights”
Alliance Cooperation
U.S. must work with European and Asian allies to reduce Middle East vulnerabilities without relying on permanent bases.
“work with European and Asian allies”
Breaking the Cycle
U.S. must pursue smarter Middle East strategy to avoid costly disengagement after Iran war.
“pursue smarter Middle East strategy”
The headline
U.S. should defend narrower core interests in Middle East with smaller military footprint and more diplomacy instead of disengagement.
