From Foreign Affairs · Joel Wuthnow · · 2m
China’s Food Crisis Could Stop Taiwan War
China’s soybean shortage might prevent a war over Taiwan by triggering domestic food shortages.
In brief
China’s soybean shortage might prevent a war over Taiwan by triggering domestic food shortages. China’s reliance on imported soybeans could deter military action in the Taiwan Strait by causing rapid food shortages. Originally reported by Foreign Affairs.
China’s Food Vulnerability
China’s food insecurity could prevent a war over Taiwan by causing domestic shortages.
Xi Jinping’s Security Focus
Xi Jinping identified food security as critical to national stability at the 2022 Party Congress.
Historical Food Scarcity
China’s 1959, 61 famine killed 30 million people, affecting 15% of its population.
Soybean Import Growth
China’s food imports grew from 6% to 34% between 2000 and 2020, expected to reach 41% by 2030.
Soybeans in Animal Feed
Soybeans provide proteins for animal feed that other foods cannot replicate, critical for meat production.
Soybean Oil Usage
Soybean oil makes up nearly half of China’s cooking oil market, with alternatives mostly imported.
Soybean Stockpiles
China’s soybean reserves might last only a few months if imports are blocked.
Soybean Import Sources
China buys soybeans from Brazil and the U.S., but Brazil’s infrastructure and floods cause harvest failures.
Shipping Challenges
Soybeans take 45 days to ship from Brazil’s Santos port to Guangzhou, risking spoilage.
War Impact on Supply
A Pacific war could block soybean shipments, causing food shortages and panic buying in China.
Short-Term Response
China might release reserves to manage shortages but risks rapid depletion and rising prices.
Long-Term Crisis
Poultry and pork would face shortages, followed by cooking oil scarcity and public unrest.
Deterrence Strategy
The U.S. and Taiwan could deter Chinese leaders by showing a long war would cause food shortages.
Food System Fragility
China’s food system is fragile, with no naval bases in Latin America to counter U.S. blockades.
Soybean Shortfall Risks
Chinese stockpiles might run out quickly, leading to panic buying and shortages within months.
War Deterrence Outcome
China’s leaders might avoid war if they believe domestic food shortages would outweigh military gains.
The main idea
China’s reliance on imported soybeans could deter military action in the Taiwan Strait by causing rapid food shortages.
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