The boom that built modern China

From nineteen seventy-eight to the early two thousands, China's working-age population surged from fifty-seven percent to nearly seventy-five percent by twenty ten, powering three decades of close to ten percent annual growth and a twenty-fold…

The tide has turned

China's total population peaked at one point four billion in twenty twenty-one and is now falling by three to four million people per year, roughly equivalent to losing one Los Angeles each year.

A century of decline ahead

By the twenty forties, if China continues to follow East Asia's descent to ultralow fertility rates, it will shed around one percent of its population annually, roughly ten million people, more than the population of…

China's elderly surge

The proportion of China's population aged sixty-five and older will double from fifteen percent today to around thirty percent in the twenty forties, then rise to well over forty percent by the late twenty-first century.

Political system turns rigid

As China's population rapidly grays, its political system is becoming increasingly regressive and rigid. The Chinese Communist Party is relying on repression and reflexively following central mandates rather than creatively addressing emerging challenges.

Xi consolidates absolute power

Xi Jinping lifted constitutional term limits on his rule as state president in twenty eighteen and swept clean the top ranks of the party at the twentieth Party Congress in twenty twenty-two, packing them with…

Military purges leave Xi alone

Similar purges have regularly rocked the top ranks of China's military, culminating in twenty twenty-six with the removal of Zhang Youxia, Xi's own handpicked top general, leaving Xi virtually alone at the helm of China's…

No succession plan at seventy-nine

Xi is set to assume a fourth five-year term as party general secretary in twenty twenty-seven and has given no sign as to who might take his place in twenty thirty-two, when he will be…

Flexibility lost to dogma

Back in the nineteen seventies and eighties, Chinese leaders under Deng were able to kickstart rapid growth through rural reforms that completely reworked Maoist economic orthodoxy.

Shanghai lockdown shows the cost

In twenty twenty-two, Shanghai officials abandoned a lighter approach to COVID-nineteen when it conflicted with Xi's zero COVID policies. The brutal two-month lockdown left many without reliable access to food and medicine.

Pensions face exhaustion

Chinese researchers have predicted that the main urban pension fund covering some five hundred million urban workers, retirees, and cadres will be exhausted by the mid-twenty thirties. Yet authorities have moved extraordinarily slowly and timidly.

Vast gap between urban and rural

In twenty twenty-two, some one hundred thirty-eight million urban retirees drew an average pension of six thousand eighty dollars per year, roughly eighteen times more than the meager three hundred forty-five dollars received by China's…

Marriage collapses across China

Between twenty thirteen and twenty twenty-four, new marriages in China fell by roughly fifty-five percent, as women and men alike backed away from family formation.

“Between 2013 and 2024, new marriages in China fell by roughly 55 percent.”

Nativist turn blocks immigration

Census results in twenty ten and twenty twenty revealed that foreign residents made up zero point one percent of China's total population.

STEM visa sparks youth backlash

In August twenty twenty-five, authorities announced a new visa aimed at attracting young, talented foreigners working in STEM fields.

Securitizing social problems

In twenty twenty-three, Beijing created the Central Social Work Department and charged it with monitoring those suffering from any of the four lacks or any of the five losses.

The Ming dynasty parallel

By midcentury, Beijing will be chronically short of the workers it needs. China is likely to approach the centennial of its founding in twenty forty-nine with core social cleavages deepened and embittered by decades of…

America's own demographic crisis

The United States fertility rate fell below replacement level in twenty oh-eight and has been sinking since.Thanks to the current administration's crackdown on immigration, data due out in twenty twenty-seven could reveal a U.S.

America can still choose differently

Demographic crisis is not destiny.It is the accumulation of choices whether to support families or dictate to them, welcome immigrants or wall them out, lift up the young or protect entrenched privilege.