Putin's strategy is working, and Trump is helping

Putin's long game pays off

Vladimir Putin has worked for decades to subjugate Ukraine and cultivate ties with Donald Trump. Now Trump's support is helping Putin recover from battlefield failures and win.

Ukraine had momentum until Trump

By spring twenty twenty-five, Ukraine had seized the offensive with new long-range missiles, midrange drones, and improved interceptors. Russian forces could not advance. Then Trump changed course.

Putin shifts to terrorizing civilians

Stymied at the frontline, Putin focused on terrorizing Ukrainian society through rocket and drone strikes on civilians and infrastructure. New weapons including the Geran five drone make this campaign especially brutal.

Trump eases pressure on Russia

Trump has suspended sanctions, bought Russian diesel, disrupted Ukraine's access to Starlink and Starshield communications, and insisted that Zelensky must go. Zelensky noted this reinforces Putin's belief his goals are within reach.

“It is equally clear that when some partners ease the pressure on Russia, it only reinforces Putin's belief that his goals are within reach.”

Putin cultivated Trump for years

Russian actors close to Putin pursued business ties with Trump years before he ran for president, including hosting the Miss Universe pageant in Moscow in twenty thirteen.

Putin interfered in twenty sixteen

Putin orchestrated unprecedented foreign interference in the twenty sixteen presidential election to help Trump and hurt Hillary Clinton. Whether it affected the outcome is impossible to prove. That Putin tried is without question.

Trump praised Putin from the start

In twenty seventeen, Trump made clear his admiration for Putin. At their Helsinki summit in twenty eighteen, Trump expressed doubt about his intelligence community's findings on Russian interference and endorsed Putin's denial.

First term constraints on Trump

In his first term, Trump's rhetorical support for Putin only marginally changed U.S. policy toward Russia. National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo constrained him.

Trump ends military aid to Ukraine

After his reelection in twenty twenty-four, Trump ended direct U.S. military and economic assistance to Ukraine. The United States was Ukraine's biggest backer. What Ukraine needs most, Patriot interceptors, are in very short supply.

Trump bars Ukraine from NATO

Trump has insisted that Ukraine would never join NATO. He gave Putin red-carpet treatment at an Alaska summit last year, where the two presidents discussed pressuring Ukraine to give up the Donbas.

Trump attacks Zelensky directly

Trump has periodically berated Zelensky. At a February twenty twenty-five Oval Office meeting, Trump cut him off and yelled, "You've done enough talking. You're not winning this. You don't have the cards."

“You've done enough talking. You're not winning this . . . You don't have the cards.”

Trump lifts sanctions and disrupts aid

In the last two weeks, Trump lifted sanctions to allow Russian diesel sales, suspended new sanctions from the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of twenty twenty-six, and disrupted Starlink and Starshield access.

Trump and Putin negotiate business deals

Through their teams, Putin and Trump have negotiated new business deals including purchase of Lukoil assets by American investors, sale of the dormant Nord Stream two pipeline, and secret Russian investments in an Alaska liquefied…

Ukraine and Europe refuse to quit

Ukrainians remain committed to fighting according to polls. Europeans are filling the American aid void. Ukrainian defense tech companies are developing new weapons to intercept Russian ballistic missiles and Geran five drones.

Midterms could reverse Trump's policy

American society does not support Trump's embrace of Putin. If Democrats win control of Congress in midterm elections next week, they could investigate business deals, restart aid to Ukraine, and enforce existing sanctions laws.

Trump's advantage over Putin is fading

Trump will become a lame duck next week, and his power to shape U.S. policy toward Russia will decline over the next two years. No future president is likely to continue Trump's Russia policy.