From Foreign Affairs · Dmitry Adamsky · · 4m
Russia's New View of Europe as Its Main Enemy
The Kremlin has shifted its strategic focus from the US to Europe, reshaping how it wages war in Ukraine and plans future confrontation.
In brief
The Kremlin has shifted its strategic focus from the US to Europe, reshaping how it wages war in Ukraine and plans future confrontation. Russia now sees Europe, not the US, as its principal geopolitical adversary, driving new military strategies that could escalate conflict even during peace negotiations. Originally…
Russia's strategic thinking shifts
In 2022, Russia viewed the US as its principal geopolitical rival and Europe as an extension of American power.
Europe becomes the main adversary
Russia now sees Europe, instead of the United States, as its principal geopolitical adversary. This shift has driven Russia's defense establishment to call for an approach known as castling to deal with the main threats.
Europe's military modernization matters
Moscow attributes new strategic agency to Europe because of dramatic military modernization taking place in many European countries and growing interest among some European leaders in developing or extending their own nuclear deterrent.
Nuclear coercion gives way to conventional
Russia's traditional understanding of nuclear coercion is giving way to new thinking about nonnuclear strategic deterrence using advanced conventional weapons systems aimed at Europe.
Ideas shape strategic choices
These shifts in Russian strategic thinking have gained prominence among influential defense intellectuals and policy experts close to the Kremlin over the past year.
What castling means in geopolitics
Castling, a term borrowed from chess, describes the repositioning of forces and resources to optimize a state's strategic posture.
Europe now supports Ukraine directly
European countries are now the principal source of Ukraine's military capacity, political resolve, and strategic resilience. Europe, not the United States, has made Ukraine its proxy and is encouraging Kyiv to pursue Moscow's strategic defeat.
Russia targets European decision-making
Moscow must direct coercive pressure at Europe, its elites, its decision-making centers, and its critical infrastructure.
Russia's objectives remain unchanged
Castling does not imply a change in Russia's overall objectives, which remain the same as those invoked by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the time of the two thousand twenty-two invasion.
Trump administration seen as Asia-focused
Russian strategists interpret the Trump administration's strategic stance as evidence that Asia has replaced Europe as the principal theater of US strategic competition.
October sanctions relief signals shift
The Trump administration's decision in mid-October to provide sanctions relief to Russia and apply new pressure on Ukraine amplify Moscow's view that Washington is pivoting away from Europe toward Asia and China.
Europe's nuclear ambitions alarm Moscow
Russian strategists are concerned by French and British governments' modernization of their nuclear programs and apparent readiness to wield them more assertively.
Which European states seek nuclear options
Russian sources identify Germany, Poland, and the Nordic-Baltic states as nuclear curious, whether in pursuing nuclear-threshold status or seeking protection under French and British nuclear umbrellas.
Nuclear expansion could cross a redline
From Moscow's perspective, any new attempt by a European state to become a nuclear power would cross a redline and could potentially create a casus belli.
Nonnuclear strategic deterrence emerges
Russian military theoreticians center nonnuclear strategic deterrence on using massive, deep, precision strikes against the adversary's critical military, political, and economic infrastructure.
Military journals publish new doctrine
There are indications that nonnuclear strategic deterrence has gained traction among Russia's senior military officers. Since twenty twenty-five, the flagship journal of Russia's general staff, Military Thought, has published several articles on the subject.
War continues even during negotiations
Even if Moscow engages in negotiations to end the war, it is likely to continue using military coercion against Ukraine and Europe.
Risk of inadvertent escalation grows
Given that the dynamic between Europe and Russia is now characterized by pervasive mutual suspicion, conspiracy theories, and expectations of war, there is a growing danger of inadvertent escalation.
Washington must choreograph amid conflict
For Washington, the primary task is not only to mediate the substance of a deal but also to learn how to choreograph negotiations amid ongoing military action.
The main idea
Russia now sees Europe, not the US, as its principal geopolitical adversary, driving new military strategies that could escalate conflict even during peace negotiations.
