From Foreign Affairs · Mara Karlin · · 1m 30s
The Fog of Tech
Why war planning must prioritize human decisions over tech hype.
In brief
Why war planning must prioritize human decisions over tech hype. Policymakers risk losing sight of war's essentials by overreliance on technology, leading to miscalculation and escalation. Originally reported by Foreign Affairs.
The technology trap
Policymakers risk overreliance on technology, ignoring war's human fundamentals.
“The risk of being overtaken by rivals such as China is real.”
The fog of tech
War planners often mistake technological solutions for answers to war's core questions.
“Who kills, who dies, and who decides?”
Historical lessons
The Gulf War's tech advantage failed to prevent later insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq.
“The U.S. military’s technological prowess in the 1:90, 91 Gulf War seemed to herald a new, high-tech American way of war.”
Ukraine war dynamics
Russian drones and Ukrainian antidrone nets show tech's complex role in modern conflict.
“Fishermen’s nets are one of the most effective antidrone defenses.”
The center of gravity
Clarity on military goals prevents strategic confusion and ensures effective outcomes.
“The hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends.”
Iranian resilience
Iran survived U.S.-Israeli strikes through strategic adaptation and coalition management.
“Iranian security officials engaged in a serious and intense effort to prepare.”
Coalition challenges
U.S.-Israel coalition faced resistance from allies and struggled with coalition management.
“Early on, several U.S. allies and partners denied the American military access to their territory.”
Casualty misjudgments
AI targeting systems may increase civilian casualties due to flawed assumptions.
“Israeli military personnel have been able to rapidly approve targets generated by an artificial intelligence system called Lavender.”
The Gulf War paradox
Gulf War had low U.S. casualties but later conflicts showed tech's limitations.
“Nearly 700,000 U.S. service members participated in the Gulf War in 1990, 91, and only 143 died.”
China's vulnerability
China may be more susceptible to tech trap than U.S. due to less experience.
“Countries that haven’t waged war in many decades, such as China, may be even more susceptible than the United States to the technology trap.”
Deterrence risks
Tech overconfidence could weaken deterrence by encouraging escalation.
“Policymakers are tempted to adopt a myopic approach to the use of force shaped by deterministic views of technology’s impact on the battlefield.”
The core lesson
War's human elements remain essential despite technological advancements.
“The fundamental nature of war will not change, even as the means of warfighting evolve.”
What happens next
Policymakers must balance tech integration with human-centered war planning.
“The most important thing for strategists and officials to grasp is that even though the means of warfighting will keep changing, the fundamental nature of war will not.”
The one thing
Policymakers risk losing sight of war's essentials by overreliance on technology, leading to miscalculation and escalation.
