From Foreign Affairs · Mansoor Moaddel · · 4m
The Middle East's quiet shift toward liberal values
Surveys across five countries show citizens increasingly reject religious authoritarianism, even as their rulers entrench power.
In brief
Surveys across five countries show citizens increasingly reject religious authoritarianism, even as their rulers entrench power. Between two thousand and twenty twenty, citizens in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey expressed growing support for liberal values including gender equality and secular politics…
A counterintuitive shift
The Middle East is often seen as fundamentally opposed to liberal values. But beneath authoritarian rule, another history has been unfolding in recent decades.
How the research was done
Between two thousand and twenty twenty, Mansoor Moaddel supervised surveys in five key countries: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Face-to-face interviews tracked shifts in citizen values.
What the surveys measured
Fifteen questions covered three dimensions: expressive individualism, gender equality and secular politics. Responses generated a liberalism index score of one to four for each population.
Egypt's dramatic shift
In Egypt, support for separating religion and politics rose from forty four percent in two thousand seven to eighty one percent in two thousand twenty.
Why Egyptians changed their minds
Panel respondents who shifted views attributed their support for secular politics to disillusionment with the Muslim Brotherhood, whose candidate won Egypt's two thousand twelve presidential election.
Islamic government support collapses
In Egypt, those considering Islamic government very good fell from twenty five percent in two thousand eleven to sixteen percent in two thousand twenty.Support for sharia law dropped from twenty eight percent to eighteen percent.
Iraq's shift after invasion
In Iraq, support for Islamic government and sharia law fell from thirty and thirty four percent in two thousand four to fifteen and fourteen percent in two thousand eleven.
Saudi Arabia's dramatic change
In Saudi Arabia, those viewing sharia law as very important fell from seventy three percent in two thousand three to thirty five percent in two thousand eleven.
Gender equality gains ground
Egyptians who strongly agreed university education is more important for boys than girls fell from fifteen percent in two thousand one to eight percent in two thousand twenty.
Turkey's liberalization under Erdogan
Between two thousand thirteen and two thousand twenty, Turkey's liberalism index rose from two point six four to two point eight eight among men and from two point seven zero to two point nine one…
Turkish identity shifts from religion
In two thousand one, sixty four percent of Turkish respondents identified primarily as Muslim and thirty four percent as Turkish citizens.
Mosque attendance declines across region
In Turkey, mosque attendance fell from nineteen percent attending more than once weekly in two thousand one to eleven percent in two thousand twenty. Egypt saw similar declines.
Iran's religious attachment weakens
Among Iranians, those viewing religious faith as important for children fell from seventy one percent in two thousand to fifty five percent in two thousand twenty.
Iran's 2022 survey shows stark shift
A two thousand twenty two survey of approximately twenty thousand Iranians found eighty eight percent favored democracy while sixty seven percent held negative views of sharia-based government.
Iraq's national identity strengthens
In Iraq, those identifying primarily as Iraqi rose from twenty three percent in two thousand four to sixty eight percent in two thousand twenty, reflecting a shift from religious or ethnic identity.
Why religious coercion backfired
Restrictions on women's mobility in Saudi Arabia and dress regulations in Iran made religious control over conduct visible. Resistance to these limits fostered wider conviction that political power should not determine matters of individual judgment.
Ideas drive political change
The formation of modern secular states in Egypt, Iran and Turkey in the early twentieth century was preceded by a rise in liberalism, constitutionalism, nationalism and secularism decades earlier.
What comes next for the region
The political alternatives that once dominated the Middle East have lost their capacity to command popular allegiance.
The bottom line
Between two thousand and twenty twenty, citizens in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Turkey expressed growing support for liberal values including gender equality and secular politics, despite authoritarian governance.
