From Foreign Affairs · Ali Wyne · · 4m
Trump's China gamble risks U.S. leverage and alliances
Donald Trump's focus on personal ties with Xi Jinping over strategic competition has weakened American interests in Asia, but overcorrecting toward hawkishness would be equally dangerous.
In brief
Donald Trump's focus on personal ties with Xi Jinping over strategic competition has weakened American interests in Asia, but overcorrecting toward hawkishness would be equally dangerous. Trump's conciliatory China policy has undermined U.S. leverage and alarmed allies, but Democrats should resist overcorrecting with…
Trump prioritizes personal ties over strategy
Nearly halfway through his second term, President Donald Trump has focused on building warm personal ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping while discounting long-standing sources of tension between the two countries.
U.S. leverage weakens as allies hedge
Trump's undisciplined approach has reduced Washington's leverage to shape the relationship. His sustained attacks on allies and partners have driven them to strengthen ties with China instead.
China gains favorability in key countries
In twenty five of thirty six countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center in spring two thousand twenty six, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and Mexico, more respondents viewed China favorably than the United States.
Democrats tempted to overcorrect
After Trump's failures, many Democrats and moderate Republicans may adopt more hawkish postures on China after the midterm elections and during the two thousand twenty eight presidential campaign.
Overcorrecting would backfire
If Congress and future candidates reflexively adopt aggressive stances toward China, they could undercut diplomatic space with Beijing and further disquiet allies that do not want a new twilight struggle.
Americans don't see China as top threat
Recent polling shows only a small share of Americans in seven battleground states view China as an enemy or consider it one of the top threats to U.S. security.
Trump's narrow view of competition
Trump sees competition with China focused primarily on the size of China's trade surplus and its export of chemicals used to make fentanyl, not broader strategic concerns.
Trump views Xi as business rival
Trump sees Xi less as a determined geopolitical foe than as a transactional business rival with whom he can negotiate to stabilize bilateral ties through nonideological means.
China forced Trump to retreat on tariffs
China is the only country that stared down Trump's April two thousand twenty five tariff barrage and forced him to retreat, demonstrating Beijing's economic leverage.
Trump acknowledges China as near peer
Even as Trump claims to be ushering in a new era of U.S.dominance, he has acknowledged China as a near peer, a designation his administration codified in its two thousand twenty five National Security Strategy.
Technology containment is failing
The nearly decade long U.S. effort to slow Chinese innovation through sanctions, tariffs, and export controls is foundering. Chinese companies are finding workarounds and advancing capabilities alongside U.S. peers.
China leads in key sectors
China is widening its lead in sectors such as electric vehicles, advanced robots, and life sciences. Attempting to construct a technological moat around the United States is unlikely to help regain competitiveness.
Trump won decisively in 2024
Trump won a second term after losing in two thousand twenty, and he did so more decisively than in two thousand sixteen, making allies question whether aggressive unilateralism will periodically shape U.S. foreign policy.
Public supports engagement with China
In a July two thousand twenty five survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, fifty three percent of Americans wanted the United States to pursue friendly cooperation and engagement with China.
Young Americans favor cooperation
A January two thousand twenty six Pew poll found only thirty two percent of Republicans and ten percent of Democrats aged eighteen to forty nine called China an enemy, compared with fifty five and eighteen…
China is enduring yet constrained
Washington should consider China an enduring yet constrained competitor. Neither country can deliver knockout blows without grievous self damage, and both will remain interdependent with vulnerabilities to each other.
U.S. and China agreed on AI safety
At September's summit between Trump and Xi, the two countries agreed to establish an incident alert system. Many members of Congress have publicly supported broader bilateral efforts to reduce risks of AI enabled security crises.
Next president should focus on renewal
The next Congress and presidential aspirants should present a steadier approach, articulating clear focus on national renewal and a balanced posture toward Beijing that reflects the mood of the American public.
The bottom line
Trump's conciliatory China policy has undermined U.S. leverage and alarmed allies, but Democrats should resist overcorrecting with aggressive postures that ignore public support for managed engagement.
