From Foreign Affairs · Robert B. Zoellick · · 4m
Trump's North American gamble
By antagonizing Canada and Mexico, the Trump administration is dismantling the geographic advantage that underpins U.S. global power.
In brief
By antagonizing Canada and Mexico, the Trump administration is dismantling the geographic advantage that underpins U.S. global power. Trump's tariffs and threats toward Canada and Mexico are eroding the North American partnership that has been central to U.S. strategy since the Cold War, weakening America's global…
Trump's assault on neighbors
The Trump administration's high tariffs and belittling of Canada as the fifty-first state are perceived as assaults on Canada's economy and independence.In Mexico, economic coercion and military threats have revived historical anxieties about U.S.hegemony.
Geography is destiny
The United States borders two benign neighbors and enjoys open sailing on two vast oceans. China and Russia each manage relationships with fourteen neighbors, many unfriendly. India deals with six, including a nuclear-armed rival.
Reagan's strategic vision
Ronald Reagan launched his presidential campaign in nineteen seventy-nine with a clear strategic rationale for North America.He said the key to U.S.
“The key to our own future security may lie in both Canada and Mexico becoming much stronger than they are today.”
Seward's continental vision
William Seward, U.S.secretary of state from eighteen sixty-one to eighteen sixty-nine, first appreciated that good relations with neighbors would boost U.S.global influence.
Seward's law of imperial gravity
Seward envisioned a North American union created through free choice, not coercion or conquest. He believed commerce would be the new god of boundaries that would redraw borders and pull countries together, a concept his…
Avoiding Mexican quagmire
The Mexican Revolution of nineteen ten ended U.S.sense of continental security.Attacks on border towns prompted the United States to send two military expeditions into Mexico.
The Bracero Program
Between nineteen forty-two and nineteen sixty-four, the United States' Bracero Program offered some four point six million Mexicans guest worker permits, filling labor gaps in agriculture, railroad, and other industries while the two countries found…
Canada's postwar partnership
After World War II, Canadians fought beside Americans in the Korean War and vigorously supported NATO, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the United Nations, and other institutions that made up the postwar order.
Reagan's free trade breakthrough
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney proposed an expansive free trade agreement in nineteen eighty-five.The two countries concluded the agreement in nineteen eighty-seven, and the U.S.Congress approved it the following year.
Mexico's bold gamble
Carlos Salinas, who assumed the Mexican presidency in nineteen eighty-eight, recognized that a free trade agreement would open his country's economy and attract investment.Mexico was struggling with debt crises and declining energy revenues.
NAFTA signed
Canada joined the negotiations in nineteen ninety-one, and together the three countries signed the North American Free Trade Agreement in nineteen ninety-two.For Washington, NAFTA was about much more than trade.
Bush's new world order
President George H. W. Bush saw NAFTA as a cornerstone of U.S. post-Cold War strategy. In nineteen ninety-two, he explained the agreement was the beginning of a new era, part of a new world order…
NAFTA's economic success
In two thousand, six years after NAFTA came into effect, U.S.unemployment dipped to three point eight percent, its lowest level in decades.Inflation fell, productivity rose, and real wages grew, with notable gains for low-wage workers.
Trade explosion
U.S.-Canadian trade in goods and services grew from one hundred sixty-nine billion dollars in nineteen eighty-eight to about nine hundred billion dollars in two thousand twenty-four.U.S.
Investment flows
U.S.direct investment in Canada rose from sixty-one billion dollars before NAFTA to about seven hundred fifty billion dollars.
Mexican immigration reversal
NAFTA's architects hoped the agreement would create economic opportunities within Mexico, enabling people to find jobs at home.By two thousand ten, Mexican immigration had fallen to net zero.
Trump's tariff assault
In two thousand twenty-five and two thousand twenty-six, the Trump administration placed high tariffs on Canadian autos, steel, aluminum, iron, metal-intensive equipment, lumber, and pharmaceuticals, claiming these imports were a threat to U.S. national security.
North America's global hand
The three countries' combined assets make North America a formidable global player.The continent stretches from the Arctic almost to the tropics.
Strengthening Mexico's institutions
NAFTA helped Mexico create world-class economic institutions and a freer society, but corruption still pervades its state and local governments, legal institutions, police forces, and schools.With U.S.
Next president's opportunity
From Seward to Reagan, the Bushes, and Clinton, U.S.leaders recognized that a strong North America offers the United States a strategic anchor in an uncertain world.The next U.S.
The bottom line
Trump's tariffs and threats toward Canada and Mexico are eroding the North American partnership that has been central to U.S. strategy since the Cold War, weakening America's global position.




