From Foreign Affairs · Justin Bronk · · 4m
Why airpower alone cannot win the Iran war
Israel and the US have destroyed much of Iran's military, yet the regime survives. History shows bombing campaigns rarely force political surrender.
In brief
Israel and the US have destroyed much of Iran's military, yet the regime survives. History shows bombing campaigns rarely force political surrender. Seven months into Operation Epic Fury, US and Israeli airstrikes have failed to force Iran's surrender, exposing the limits of bombing campaigns against dispersed regimes…
Iran survives months of strikes
Israel and the United States have hit thousands of Iranian targets, destroying much military infrastructure and killing top leaders. Yet Iran maintains significant offensive capabilities and has not surrendered.
Air superiority has limits
The US and Israel chose to rely on sustained air and stand-off naval campaigns to bring down Iran's regime.
World War Two bombing failed
Nazi Germany fought to the very end despite the Allies' systematic bombing of its cities, industrial base, and transport and fuel networks. Airpower did not force political capitulation.
Korea and Vietnam repeated the pattern
North Korea fought the United States and its allies to a standstill despite US bombers obliterating most of its cities and infrastructure.
Afghanistan and Iraq also failed
The United States and its allies quickly established total air superiority in both countries and could call in precision airstrikes at will. Yet both campaigns ultimately failed to achieve their political objectives.
Russia's Ukraine campaign stalls
Despite near-daily barrages of Ukraine's cities, power infrastructure, and industry, Russia is no closer to vanquishing the country more than four and a half years after its brutal invasion began.
Iran's population shows no pressure
There has been little sign that US and Israeli airstrikes have fueled popular pressure to end the war in Iran.
External support changes the equation
Countries can now rely on international support to mitigate damage from sustained enemy strike campaigns. Ukraine receives American and European weapons and economic support. China provides Iran with oil markets and air defense systems.
Russia backs Iran's military
Russia remains a key Iranian ally, providing Tehran with intelligence to target US forces in the Gulf and helping it develop new military capabilities, such as supersonic antiship missiles.
Desert Storm showed airpower's strength
The US military's overwhelming success against the well-equipped Iraqi army in Operation Desert Storm in nineteen ninety-one was the defining example of how an air-centered approach can be effective.
Kosovo and Libya succeeded too
NATO's intervention in Kosovo in nineteen ninety-nine saw a seventy-eight-day air campaign lead Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic to withdraw his forces. In Libya in two thousand eleven, airstrikes rapidly destroyed government tanks attacking Benghazi.
Ground forces matter most
When an adversary pursues goals requiring significant ground force deployment, such as invading a neighboring state, air superiority confers decisive military advantage. But this requires the enemy to deploy forces in the open.
Iran keeps forces hidden
Iran does not need to deploy regular armed forces in the open to achieve its objectives.
Missiles buried beyond reach
Most of Iran's significant remaining ballistic missile stocks and production capacity are in deeply buried missile cities, out of reach of almost all conventional bombs and missiles.
Houthis pose the same problem
This is the same problem that has frustrated earlier attempts by the United States and its allies to stop antiship drone and missile strikes by the Houthis in Yemen.
Operation Epic Fury wasted resources
The Trump administration would not have launched Operation Epic Fury if it had known that seven months later it would still face an inconclusive slugging match, wasting a huge part of Washington's complex munitions stockpile…
Airpower still matters for deterrence
Airpower remains the most potent piece of the United States' conventional forces and its main source of deterrent capacity against conventional aggression by hostile states.
China and Russia pose real threats
A Russian invasion of a NATO member state in eastern Europe or a Chinese move to take Taiwan would require large deployments of regular ground forces to seize and hold territory.
US must invest in air capabilities
To convince China and Russia that NATO and US forces can rapidly establish air superiority, the United States must restock air-launched munitions, ramp up production of missile interceptors, and accelerate development of next generation fighter…
Air superiority guarantees deterrence
Although establishing air superiority over territory contested by Chinese or Russian forces will be far more difficult than over Iran, it is essential for maintaining conventional deterrence.
What to remember
Seven months into Operation Epic Fury, US and Israeli airstrikes have failed to force Iran's surrender, exposing the limits of bombing campaigns against dispersed regimes with external support.
