From Foreign Policy · Joseph Rachman · · 3m
A Bumpy Peace Election in the Philippines
The Bangsamoro region's first parliamentary vote was meant to end decades of conflict, but violence and splits threaten the peace.
In brief
The Bangsamoro region's first parliamentary vote was meant to end decades of conflict, but violence and splits threaten the peace. The Bangsamoro election could either advance peace in Mindanao or reignite conflict, with major implications for the Philippine military's ability to focus on China. Originally reported by…
An election to settle conflict
The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region held its first parliamentary election this week, meant to be the next step in a decades-old peace process in Mindanao.
Violence mars the vote
At least five people were killed and 18 injured during the election period, despite heavy security. Masked men gathered near polling stations and roamed streets on trucks.
Mindanao's long struggle
The Philippines' second-largest island has resisted national authorities for centuries. Spanish and American colonialists struggled to subdue the majority-Muslim islands.
Christian settlers sparked new conflict
In the 1960s under Ferdinand Marcos, an influx of Christian settlers from other islands triggered another round of fighting with Muslim communities.
Two rebel groups, two deals
The MNLF struck a peace deal in 1996. The MILF, an Islamist splinter group, kept fighting until it reached its own agreement in 2014.
Autonomy as the solution
The 2014 deal created BARMM, an autonomous parliamentary government with wide-ranging powers to raise revenue and legislate across Muslim-majority areas.
Four delays to democracy
BARMM formed in 2019 with appointed delegates. The first election was scheduled for 2022 but was delayed four times before finally happening this week.
The MILF splits politically
MILF Chair Al Haj Murad Ebrahim leads the United Bangsamoro Justice Party. Last year, Abdulraof Macacua displaced him as chief minister and joined the rival Bangsamoro Federalist Party.
National government backing suspected
The Bangsamoro Federalist Party is seen as having barely veiled backing from the Philippine national government. Many local officials have declared allegiance to it.
Philippine election problems amplified
Vote buying, intimidation, and violence are persistent problems in Philippine elections. The Bangsamoro context made this a potentially explosive mix.
Election day chaos begins
Three people died in an explosion the night before voting. Ballot delivery delays held up proceedings. A shoot-out at a polling station left one more dead.
It could have been worse
The MILF still has 14,000 fighters, now better armed than in 2014, because the demobilization plan stalled. The violence could have been much greater.
Federalists likely to lead
The Bangsamoro Federalist Party looks set to lead the next government with the highest vote share. The MILF-aligned party is already crying foul over the election.
Peace process at a crossroads
Whether the new government can keep the peace process on track remains uncertain. How the losing MILF-aligned party reacts will be critical.
Implications beyond the Philippines
Settling the Mindanao conflict would free the Philippine military from suppressing local insurgencies. This would let them redirect focus outward to the challenge of China.
Vietnam's app drivers strike
Grab drivers in Vietnam launched a weekend strike over platform fees reaching 50 percent of fares. The government's competition regulator is now probing Grab's fee structure.
A growing political force
Grab has 5 million driver partners across Southeast Asia with 47 million monthly users. Their numbers and centrality to urban mobility give drivers significant political weight.
Indonesia caps platform fees
The Indonesian government moved in May to curry favor with drivers by lowering the cap on platform fees from 20 percent to 8 percent.
The essence
The Bangsamoro election could either advance peace in Mindanao or reignite conflict, with major implications for the Philippine military's ability to focus on China.
