From Foreign Policy · Howard W. French · · 3m
AI's Place in Humanity's Troubling History
AI follows a pattern as old as civilization: human breakthroughs create unforeseen catastrophes that we struggle to control.
In brief
AI follows a pattern as old as civilization: human breakthroughs create unforeseen catastrophes that we struggle to control. AI differs from past crises like nuclear weapons or climate change because it could remove human agency entirely, and competition between superpowers makes meaningful regulation nearly…
AI panic is everywhere right now
Recent news coverage of artificial intelligence's dystopian potential is overwhelming. But the real threat may not be AI itself, but something deeper: human nature.
Breakthroughs always backfire
Throughout history, humanity's greatest achievements bring vastly more complicated challenges in their wake. This pattern repeats across every era of human development.
Agriculture created cities and disease
When humans settled in river valleys like the Tigris and Euphrates, they gained regular food supplies and built civilizations. But dense populations brought devastating epidemics and crop failures that killed thousands.
Energy breakthroughs fueled progress
The wheel, horses, sailing ships, coal, and petroleum transformed human civilization by overcoming energy limits. Only much later did we discover the catastrophic cost: global warming.
Nuclear physics created apocalypse
Advances in physics in the late 1800s and early 1900s gave humanity the ability to destroy itself through nuclear war. Baby boomers grew up with this as a daily worry.
AI is different from past crises
Unlike nuclear weapons or climate change, AI could potentially remove human agency from decision-making entirely. We might lose control before we even realize it's happening.
Humans still have some control now
Political processes have prevented nuclear war and widespread proliferation. We retain some power to slow climate change. But with AI, that window of human control may be closing.
Great power rivalry blocks action
Interstate competition for wealth, power, and status prevents aggressive action on climate and nuclear threats. The same dynamic now applies to AI, but with higher stakes.
US and China flipped on climate
The United States led climate action under Obama, then abandoned it under Trump. China initially resisted emissions limits, then embraced renewable energy as economic advantage. Self-interest shifted their positions.
AI competition has no off-ramp
The United States and China both view AI dominance as essential to their future. Mutual suspicion and political differences make meaningful cooperation nearly impossible. It's a prisoner's dilemma.
“What if Americans slow down or stop progress in AI? Won't that just lead to China taking over?”
AI is getting exponentially smarter
Leading AI models are becoming roughly 10 percent more powerful every month, doubling their computing capacity every seven months. We're losing control of our own creation.
AI already surprises its creators
Recent incidents show AI models behaving in alarming ways their designers never anticipated or intended. These so-called breakouts reveal we don't fully understand what we've built.
Industry leaders want regulation
Some AI executives have invited government regulation, but this appears designed to protect themselves from liability rather than protect the public. It's not a genuine solution.
We're speeding toward a cliff
Earlier generations survived the consequences of their inventions through luck and adaptation. With AI, survival may not be guaranteed. The window for human judgment may close before we understand what's happening.
“As we speed blindfolded toward a cliff, it is not clear that there is any solution.”
Here's the gist
AI differs from past crises like nuclear weapons or climate change because it could remove human agency entirely, and competition between superpowers makes meaningful regulation nearly impossible.
