What Russians mean by normal

Russians use the word normalno to describe getting by financially, having kids who tolerate you, and authorities who leave you alone. It's the baseline of acceptable life.

War destroyed normalcy

Before Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, life was normal for most Russians. Now, four and a half years into the war, Russia loses about 1,100 soldiers daily and its economy is collapsing.

Ending war requires ending Putin

Normalcy requires the war to end. But the war cannot end while Putin remains in power, since he needs it for his personal and political survival.

Russia's belief in greatness

Russians see their country as uniquely destined for greatness with a quasi-right to dominate others. This messianic concept, rooted in Orthodox Christianity, drives imperial ambitions.

Greatness spans centuries

Imperial officials, dissidents like Solzhenitsyn, and today's propagandists all share this vision of Russian greatness. It's a stable political-cultural norm, not a passing trend.

Culture undermines daily life

Russians wanting everyday normalcy struggle against their own culture's claims about national greatness. The desire for quotidian peace conflicts with beliefs about destiny.

Empires need humiliation

Britain, France, Germany, and Japan abandoned imperial ambitions only after military defeat. Russia could embrace normalcy only if Ukraine defeats it decisively.

Ceasefire won't be enough

A mere ceasefire or Putin's removal won't change Russian political culture. Only a spectacular collapse comparable to Germany's 1945 defeat could shift assumptions.

The imperial state problem

Russia spans 11 time zones with many nations, cultures, and religions. This size makes it structurally imperial, with metropoles and colonized regions that have no voice.

Three empires, same repression

Tsarist Russia, the Soviet Union, and Putin's Russia all adopted repressive policies toward non-Russian subjects, from cultural suppression to deportation to genocidal war.

Russians embrace empire

Most ethnic Russians support the imperial state. Few protested Chechen wars, Georgia's invasion, or Crimea's annexation. Most don't see Ukraine as truly independent.

“Scratch a Russian liberal and find a Russian imperialist.”

Even liberals backed invasions

Alexey Navalny, seen as a liberal oppositionist, supported Russia's invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 before changing his views in 2022.

Lenin's warning about empire

Soviet revolutionary Lenin observed that Russian chauvinism gave rise to non-Russian nationalism and separatism. This dynamic still drives imperial conflict today.

Greatness demands silencing

To maintain imperial greatness, Russian leaders from tsars to communists to Putin have consistently silenced non-Russian demands for autonomy and cultural identity.

The vicious circle

Abandoning greatness would enable normalcy, but it would also strip away a key source of national pride and affective empowerment that Russians deeply value.

Normalcy matters for neighbors

Russia's imperial culture and centralized state make war easier to justify to elites and the public. A normal Russia would be far less likely to wage genocidal wars.

The world won't help

The Trump administration wants Russia revived as a great power. Europe is only now recognizing Russia's hybrid war. Most of the world sees America as a bigger threat.

Ukraine's advantage grows

Ukraine's determination to win remains undiminished and it kills Russian soldiers faster than Putin can recruit them. Ukraine has the momentum.

Putin is destroying Russia

Putin promised to make Russia great again. Instead, his war is collapsing the economy, killing soldiers in staggering numbers, and proving Russia is a has-been power.

The path to normalcy

Once Russians abandon their belief in imperial greatness and special destiny, they can finally enjoy the normalcy they actually want. That requires accepting defeat first.