From Foreign Policy · Nicholas Bequelin, Yaqiu Wang · · 4m
China, not Iran, is Trump's real foreign policy debacle
In 19 months, Washington has lost ground to Beijing on every conceivable front.
In brief
In 19 months, Washington has lost ground to Beijing on every conceivable front. Trump's China policy failures have allowed Beijing to gain ground economically, militarily, and diplomatically while America's global standing has deteriorated. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Iran overshadows China failure
The Iran conflict exposed limits of U.S. power and tanked Trump's approval. But historians may see his failed China policy as far more consequential.
China gains on every front
Over 18 months, China gained ground on the economy, military balance, science, technology, and geopolitical influence while America retreated.
Beijing's real goal revealed
China doesn't want a Chinese world order. It wants to constrain U.S. power, push America out of Asia, and accelerate the decline of the West.
Xi visits amid power shift
When Xi comes to Washington on Sept. 24, the pageantry will obscure how far the balance of power has shifted in Beijing's favor.
No clear goals on China
Trump never articulated stable objectives toward China. The 2025 National Security Strategy didn't even identify China as America's paramount competitor.
Trade deficit barely improved
Despite Trump's obsession, the trade deficit hardly changed. Chinese exports just rerouted through Vietnam, Taiwan, and Mexico instead.
“China is no longer the trading partner with which the United States has its largest trade deficit.”
Supply chain dependence continues
The administration failed to reduce U.S. dependence on China for rare earths, magnets, and industrial inputs critical to American manufacturing.
The Busan truce exposed limits
In October 2025, Trump abandoned his threat of 100 percent tariffs in exchange for a fragile truce. The world noted the limits of U.S. leverage.
China closes the AI gap
Chinese language models now rival U.S. models at a fraction of the cost. China leads in industrial robot deployment and is spreading AI globally.
Semiconductor controls failed
The administration ignored its own strategy and moved too slowly against workarounds. Chinese firms trained models on banned chips obtained through third countries.
China dominates the full cycle
National power depends on dominating discovery, commercialization, and diffusion at scale. By that measure, China is gaining fast on America.
China produces twice the STEM grads
China will produce nearly twice as many STEM Ph.D.s yearly, files more patents, and recruits talent America turns away with punitive immigration rules.
Military deterrence weakened
The Iran war diverted forces from Asia. The USS George Washington left Japan for the Middle East, leaving the Western Pacific without a U.S. carrier.
Taiwan used as bargaining chip
Beijing conducted its largest exercises around Taiwan. Trump treated a $14 billion arms package as a negotiating chip, signaling Taiwan's security is tradable.
Allies lose confidence
Trump cut U.S.-South Korea military exercises and strained ties with India. Regional states now hedge their bets as American security assurances weaken.
America's soft power collapses
Only 39 percent globally say the U.S. respects personal freedoms. Trump's immigration crackdown and attacks on the press damaged America's image as a model.
Foreign aid gutted
U.S. aid fell 57 percent in 2025 after Trump dismantled USAID. America now provides less international aid than Germany.
Military coercion without restraint
The U.S. captured Venezuela's Maduro and struck an oil deal. It launched war on Iran without consulting allies or considering the U.N. Charter.
China viewed more favorably now
China hasn't become more liberal, but soft power is comparative. Pew now finds China viewed more favorably than the U.S. in 25 places surveyed.
Self-inflicted wounds
Washington's setbacks were largely self-inflicted. Trump exposed U.S. economic vulnerability to China and confirmed Xi's belief that time is on China's side.
“Perhaps Trump's greatest legacy will be confirming Xi's belief that time is on China's side.”
The bottom line
Trump's China policy failures have allowed Beijing to gain ground economically, militarily, and diplomatically while America's global standing has deteriorated.
