From Foreign Policy · Robert A. Manning, Nick Hawkins · · 2m
China Space Race Threatens U.S. Dominance
China's rapid space advancements challenge U.S. leadership in satellites, lunar missions, and military space capabilities.
In brief
China's rapid space advancements challenge U.S. leadership in satellites, lunar missions, and military space capabilities. China has become a full-spectrum peer competitor to the U.S. in space, surpassing it in positioning, navigation, and anti-satellite capabilities while narrowing the gap in reusable rocket…
China's Space Ambitions
China is a full-spectrum peer competitor with the U.S. in space from moon bases to weapons systems.
“Beijing is a full-spectrum peer competitor with Washington in everything from planned moon bases each powered by nuclear reactors to space weapons.”
Space Competition Intensifies
The U.S. and China compete over low Earth orbit, lunar real estate, and space weapons capabilities.
“Space, with an already crowded low Earth orbit (LEO) and few rules, is another bifurcated realm of conflict-prone rivalry that brings systemic challenges to the U.S.-China relationship.”
China's Satellite Network
China is building an integrated satellite network rivaling U.S. capabilities with 56 satellites in its BeiDou system.
“China’s BeiDou system has 56 satellites spanning three orbits, making it a more diversified and resilient global positioning, navigation, and messaging services provider than GPS.”
U.S. Space Superiority
The U.S. leads in satellites, LEO broadband, and space situational awareness with 10 times more satellites than China.
“The United States still has some 10 times more satellites in orbit than China, and while China’s launch cadence is rising, the country’s 92 total space launches in 2025 were still well below the 165 launches of SpaceX alone.”
Reusable Rocket Breakthroughs
China achieved controlled rocket recovery using net capture and landing legs, matching SpaceX’s methods.
“On July 10, China recovered a Long March-10B carrier rocket with a net-based capture on a sea platform, a global first for this recovery method and China’s first controlled recovery.”
Lunar Race Accelerates
China plans a crewed lunar base by 2035, while the U.S. aims to retire the ISS by 2030.
“Beijing is adding three new modules, doubling its size [of Tiangong space station] to boost China’s global space status among prospective partners.”
Space Debris Threat
China’s space station has maneuvered to avoid collisions with Starlink satellites, risking U.S.-China coordination.
“The 2021 incidents when China’s space station had to maneuver to avoid a collision with Starlink satellites.”
Artemis vs. ILRS
The U.S. Artemis program targets lunar missions, while China’s ILRS aims for a lunar base by 2035.
“Beijing has initiated the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), a project to establish a crewed base presence at the moon’s south pole by 2035.”
Outer Space Treaty Challenges
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty defines space as a global commons but lacks rules for modern space competition.
“The one foundational treaty governing space activities is the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which 118 nations have ratified.”
U.S. Space Surveillance Network
The U.S. tracks 11,345 satellites, including from 10 foreign governments, with advanced debris monitoring.
“U.S. SSA systems are robust, including the NASA-designed Space Traffic Management (STM) architecture, the Traffic Coordination System for Space, and U.S. Space Force’s satellite catalogue.”
China's Anti-Satellite Capabilities
China has surpassed the U.S. in anti-satellite weapons and satellite imaging technologies.
“China has progressed significantly in remote sensing and surpassed the United States in visible, radar, and hyperspectral imaging and anti-satellite capabilities.”
Space Warfare Concerns
The U.S. has weapons in space after Chinese advancements in space capabilities.
“The United States recently revealed that it has weapons in space.”
Wolf Amendment Limitations
The 2011 Wolf Amendment bans NASA from cooperation with China, hindering space collaboration.
“The 2011 Wolf Amendment, which bans NASA from cooperation with China, constrains effort to coordinate solutions.”
Space Debris Management
U.S. and China need coordination on space debris monitoring and collision avoidance.
“Risk-reduction steps such as pre-notification when satellites are moved, collaboration on space debris monitoring and early warning, and coordination and deconfliction on STM are needed.”
Future Space Competition
A catastrophic event may be needed to define mutual space cooperation terms.
“It may take a catastrophic event in space before the reality of mutual vulnerability overcomes deep distrust and suspicion enough to define the terms of coexistence.”
The headline
China has become a full-spectrum peer competitor to the U.S. in space, surpassing it in positioning, navigation, and anti-satellite capabilities while narrowing the gap in reusable rocket technology.
