From Foreign Policy · Henry Tugendhat · · 1m 50s
China Won’t Bail Out Trump’s Lost War
China ignores Trump’s call to help Gulf shipping after Iran-Saudi mediation offer.
In brief
China ignores Trump’s call to help Gulf shipping after Iran-Saudi mediation offer. China has no incentive to pressure Iran to end the war on U.S. terms as it seeks regional self-reliance and avoids U.S. military involvement. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Iran-Saudi Mediation Offer
China’s media focused on Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s proposal to mediate between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
“Iran says it is reviewing u.s. proposals; conditions for reopening the strait remain unchanged”
China’s Historical Stance on Iran
China supported regional self-reliance since the 1980s, advocating u.s. withdrawal from the gulf and protesting u.s. intervention in kuwait.
“In one 1981 study, chinese scholars recommended strengthening iran’s position in the gulf to hobble u.s. access to the region’s oil”
China’s Current Economic Resilience
China relies on 18% of energy from oil versus u.s. 38%, with coal at 51% and domestic coal stocks rising.
“More than 90 percent of the coal china consumes is produced domestically”
Trump’s Failed Call for Help
Trump asked China to send ships to the persian gulf in march, but China did not heed the call.
“China was the only permanent member of the un security council not to send ships during the iran-iraq war”
China’s Strategic Use of Iran
China used Iran to counter u.s. pressure during the 1989 tiananmen square massacre and later improved relations with the u.s. in 1997.
“Beijing agreed to cease nuclear cooperation with iran in 1997 as a gesture of goodwill”
China’s Long-Term Goals
China seeks a regional security architecture with less u.s. involvement and improved relations with gulf states.
“China’s global security initiative expresses its interest in a multipolar world”
China’s Economic Resilience
China developed 225 new oil and gas fields between 2021 and 2:025, reducing oil dependency.
“Part of china’s resilience stems from developing two hundred twenty-five new oil and gas fields domestically between 2021 and 2025”
Deflation and Oil Prices
China faced deflation before the iran war, with increased price pressure easing deflationary pressures.
“In the months leading up to the iran war, china was struggling with deflation”
China’s Stance on U.S. Pressure
China has no incentive to lean on Iran to accept u.s. terms to end the war.
“China has no real incentive to lean on iran to accept u.s. terms to end the war”
Trump’s Misreading of China
Trump misreads China’s interests, expecting help from Xi in the iran crisis.
“Trump should expect little help from xi in getting out of his quagmire in iran”
China’s Next Steps
China will mediate between iran and gulf states to build regional security and improve its image among gulf states.
“China’s leaders are likely not naive that this will happen soon or involve chinese weapons sales in the near term”
The headline
China has no incentive to pressure Iran to end the war on U.S. terms as it seeks regional self-reliance and avoids U.S. military involvement.
